Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 3.84%) have been on a volatile run. As of Feb. 10, they trade 42% off their peak. But they have climbed 29% in the past three months.
The business exceeded analyst estimates for revenue and earnings per share in last year's fourth quarter (ended Dec. 31). However, foot traffic declined in every single quarter of 2025 -- not an encouraging sign.
Investors must maintain a long-term focus. That's because the consumer discretionary stock's CEO just admitted that the company is staring at a $28 billion opportunity.
Image source: Getty Images.
Looking at the big picture
Scott Boatwright, who has been in Chipotle's top job since late 2024, after Brian Niccol left to go to Starbucks, provided upbeat commentary about the company's future. "We still have confidence in the long-term algorithm of getting to $4 million annual unit volumes (AUVs) and approaching 30% margins," he said on the Q4 2025 earnings call.
In Q4, Chipotle generated AUVs of $3.1 million. This figure represents yearly sales at each company-owned location.
The business currently has 4,042 company-owned stores. But Boatwright also reiterated a target of 7,000 restaurants open in North America one day. By doing some simple math, we can figure out that this outlook implies $28 billion in revenue potential for the leader in Tex-Mex dining. Not including stores in other markets, that's 135% higher than what the company collected in 2025.
It's understandable if investors aren't so high on Chipotle these days. It just wrapped up a disappointing year. Lower-income and younger consumers are pulling back their spending, which is clearly having a negative impact.
But Chipotle's leadership team is optimistic. They opened 334 new locations in 2025. The goal is to open 350 to 370 in 2026. Many are being built with Chipotlane drive-through setups, which boost sales, margins, and returns. Throw in ongoing investments in supply chain and tech initiatives, and higher AUVs with improving restaurant-level margins are in play.
NYSE: CMG
Key Data Points
Hungry for winning returns
Since the COVID-19 pandemic hit almost six years ago, Chipotle has been able to continue growing its store base, revenue, and profits. This impressive trajectory happened during a period of multiple macrorelated developments. Besides the health crisis, there was inflation, rising interest rates, tariff announcements, and weaker consumer confidence last year. Chipotle's ability to navigate the headwinds should give investors confidence in its long-term prospects.
Shares aren't as expensive as they used to be. The current price-to-earnings ratio of 34.4 is 72% cheaper than what it was exactly five years ago. I believe this is an interesting opportunity for investors to add an industry-leading company to their portfolios while it's on the dip.
