Billionaire Bill Ackman is the founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, one of the 20 most profitable hedge funds in history, according to LCH Investments. That makes him an excellent source of inspiration.
Last year, Ackman added large positions in Amazon (AMZN 1.61%) and Meta Platforms (META 2.51%). As of December, Pershing had 23% of its capital split between those two artificial intelligence stocks. In both cases, Wall Street sees the potential for big gains in the next year.
- Amazon's median target price of $285 per share implies 43% upside from its current share price of $199.
- Meta's median target price of $850 per share implies 32% upside from its current share price of $640.
Here's what investors should know.
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Amazon: 13% of Bill Ackman's portfolio
Bill Ackman's investment thesis for Amazon centers on its strong presence in e-commerce and cloud computing. The company runs the largest online marketplace in North America and Western Europe, and Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the largest public cloud in terms of infrastructure and platforms services spending. Amazon is using artificial intelligence (AI) to drive revenue growth and improve profitability.
It has developed hundreds of generative AI applications to make its retail operations more efficient, including tools that optimize inventory placement, warehouse workflows, and robot traffic in its fulfillment centers. Ackman says those innovations, coupled with strong growth in high-margin advertising sales, could drive "significant margin expansion." Indeed, excluding one-time charges, Amazon's operating margin increased 1.5 percentage points in the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, AWS has added dozens of AI products and services, including custom chips (a business where revenue is increasing at a triple-digit pace), developer tools, and various AI agents. Ackman believes those innovations extend and potentially accelerate AWS revenue growth. Indeed, cloud services sales climbed 24% in the fourth quarter, the fastest growth in 13 quarters.
Amazon stock is currently 20% below its high, partly because investors are worried about how much money the company is spending on artificial intelligence. But Morgan Stanley analysts believe the spending is justified because Amazon is likely to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of physical AI (i.e., autonomous robots). I wholeheartedly agree.
Wall Street expects Amazon's earnings to grow at 17% annually over the next three years. That makes the current valuation of 28 times earnings look reasonable. Patient investors should feel comfortable buying a small position today.
NASDAQ: AMZN
Key Data Points
Meta Platforms: 10% of Bill Ackman's portfolio
Ackman's investment thesis for Meta Platforms centers on its status as the second-largest ad tech company in the world. Its ownership of several popular social media proprieties, including Facebook and Instagram, affords the company deep insight into consumer interests that support highly precise ad targeting.
Ackman calls Meta an "essential platform for businesses seeking to maximize their return on ad spend," and he views the company as a clear beneficiary of AI innovation. Meta has developed custom AI chips and proprietary models that work together to personalize the user experience. Those innovations are not only driving deeper user engagement, but also better outcomes for advertisers.
"The optimizations we made in Q4 drove a 7% lift in views of organic feed and video posts on Facebook, resulting in the largest quarterly revenue impact from Facebook product launches in the past two years," said CFO Susan Li. "The average price per ad increased 6% year over year, benefiting from increased advertiser demand, largely driven by improved ad performance."
Importantly, while the advertising business will remain the biggest growth driver in the near term, Meta sees an opportunity to integrate a superintelligence system into smart glasses in the long term. The company already dominates the burgeoning smart glasses market (accounting for more than 70% of sales) and spending is forecast to grow at 60% annually through 2029, according to Counterpoint Research.
Wall Street estimates Meta's earnings will grow at 19% annually over the next three years. That makes the current valuation of 27 times earnings look attractive. Patient investors should consider buying a small position today.
