One Optimistic Oil Forecast

Last October, I noted some serious oil disorder south of the border, particularly when it comes to the formerly famed and now fast-fading Cantarell field. Today, I'm once more urging you, my fellow oil-focused Fools, to keep an eye on Mexican production.

At the outset, this Mexican supergiant contained perhaps twice the reserves of Petrobras' (NYSE:PBR) recent Tupi discovery. The glory days are gone, however. In 2007, Cantarell produced roughly 1.47 million barrels per day (boe/d). That figure dropped to just a touch over one million daily barrels in 2008. This year could see an even steeper decline.

At the beginning of 2009, state oil monopoly Pemex prognosticated production of 756,000 boe/d for the year. The company's fourth-quarter financial report rounded that figure down to 700,000 per day, but a spokesperson quickly denied that this signaled a forecast reduction. As you can imagine, this is a pretty sensitive subject.

That didn't stop the International Energy Agency (IEA) from laying the smack down on Friday. In its newest Oil Market Report (for subscriber eyes only), the Paris-based think tank projects Cantarell production of roughly 600,000 boe/d. That's more than 20% below Pemex's forecast!

Is the IEA overly pessimistic, or is Pemex's outlook too optimistic? I'm afraid the latter case is more likely. Just look at the December 2008 monthly average, down 36% from the prior year. January fared even worse, off a glaring 38%.

Given these horrific stats, you'd never guess that Pemex is spending billions of dollars on Cantarell each year. That's exactly the case, however, and industrial gas firms like Praxair (NYSE:PX) and water separation specialists like Cameron (NYSE:CAM) are the sorts of firms that could potentially benefit from continued spending here. In the case of Praxair, though, it's worth noting that Cantarell's already got the biggest nitrogen plant in the world, so I'm not sure there's too much upside on that front.

Just as important for energy services investors, Pemex is intent on initiating other large projects to try and offset some of Cantarell's decline.

One key focus is Chicontepec, an onshore field into which Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) is about to start sticking 500 straws. Then, of course, there's the deepwater. Noble (NYSE:NE) is well positioned to benefit imminently from this offshore push, and subject to exploratory success, folks like Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) and FMC Technologies (NYSE:FTI) would likely catch an updraft as well.