5 Superball Stocks

In my recurring Fool column, "Get Ready for the Bounce," we search for future winners in a pile of 52-week losers. But do we really need to sit around for a whole year, waiting for a fallen stock to bounce back?

Nope. Sometimes stocks fall hard, in far less time than a year. And like a superball dropped from the balcony, the harder they fall, the higher they bounce. Today, we'll look at a few equities that've suffered dramatic drops over the past week. With a little help from the 165,000 members of Motley Fool CAPS, we hope to find an opportunity or two for you:

Companies are selected by screening on finviz.com for abrupt 10% or greater price drops over the past week. 52-week high and recent price data provided by finviz.com. CAPS ratings from Motley Fool CAPS.

Mr. Market rediscovered his mojo last week, gaining nearly 2% in five days -- but not all stocks were so fortunate. In a flurry of earnings releases, first iStar Financial admitted to taking larger losses than expected (and was punished accordingly). Then, YRC Worldwide reported a much smaller Q2 loss than it suffered last year, and promised "significant operating momentum" going forward to boot -- yet investors bailed out of the truck regardless.

Similarly with STEC. The premier name in solid-state drives not only beat analyst estimates for Q2, but raised guidance on Q3 -- and sold off anyway. And Oshkosh? It seems 100% sales growth, mountains of free cash flow, and a big, big earnings quarter weren't enough to save this stock, as investors continued to fret over how sustainable the company's military business will be.

Seems no matter how good the news, investors just aren't prepared to give these stocks more than a middling three-star rating on CAPS and even odds on outperforming the S&P. In fact, according to the consensus of CAPS members, only one stock on this week's list looks likely to beat those odds:

Owens Corning
You probably know Owens Corning as the company behind the pink insulation lining most of America's attics. But that's not all this company does. Probably the company's least known attribute is, as CAPS member bearcaps informs us, that "OC makes the composite material that is used in windmills." Fellow investor fscari adds that, "after the acquisition of Vetrotex BU from Saint Gobain, OC has clearly become the global leader in Reinforcement and Composites based on glass." With a "great products portfolio, growing market share and solid management; with asbestos litigations off the back, the stock is destined to grow."

CAPS member WheresTheBox agrees: "Most people took the last 2 years off from building houses or buying cars. Are we suddenly going to use fewer of them? Owens Corning (OC) integrates this pent-up building demand with the possibility of increased energy efficiency."

Of course, there's no telling precisely when this alleged up-demand is going to get itself un-pent. Over in the housing industry, homebuilders such as Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) and Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV) are still reporting double-digit declines in their sales figures. Depressed housing numbers are doing a number on Owens Corning, where profits on roofing products fell into the basement last week. Still, with other divisions picking up some slack, Owens Corning managed to report better Q2 profits overall for the quarter -- a whopping $7.33 per share, in fact.

Potemkin houses, real cash
Granted, much of those profits came from the reversal of an "accounting valuation allowance of $858 million," an accounting quirk that helped push reported profits up past $1 billion for the past 12 months (but that, as management concedes, "has no impact on Owens Corning's cash flow or liquidity.") Still, to my Foolish eye, the Potemkin Billion-Dollars isn't the number to focus on here. The number to focus on (as always) is free cash flow. And over the past 12 months, Owens Corning generated more than $500 million worth of real, honest-to-goodness free cash flow from its business.

Time to chime in
That $500 million over the past year is enough to bring the price-to-free cash flow ratio on this giant of industry down to just 7.2. It's enough to pay off the firm's net debt in less than four years. And most important of all, with analysts projecting long-term growth at the company in the 30% range, it's enough to create a really big large margin of safety on the stock.

Personally, I expect to see the stock bounce back hard once enough investors catch on to this fact -- but that's just my opinion. What I'd really like to know is what you think about Owens Corning. Will its well-insulated valuation put your portfolio in the pink, or just leave you feeling itchy all over?