The S&P 500 has fallen roughly 15% over the last month, and economist Andrew Smithers has some specific predictions on where it's headed next. He's expecting a "significant rally" off of today's levels, followed by decline, according to Bloomberg.
As for the rally, Smithers reasons that companies are carrying large amounts of cash, and when P/E ratios are low and cash ratios are high, companies are more likely to buy back shares, which can trigger a short-term rally.
Standard & Poor's 500 Index companies have about $291 in cash and short-term investments per share, according to data from Bloomberg. That's the highest since the data became available in 1998.
For the decline, Smithers said in a report dated Aug. 15 that the S&P 500 is still overvalued by about 43 percent relative to earnings for the past 10 years. Relative to the Q ratio, which compares market value with the replacement cost of assets, the index is about 36 percent too high, Smithers said.
He recommends that investors sell their holdings after a 10% gain.
We ran a screen on stocks from the S&P 500 for those with the most bullish options sentiment and most bullish short trends. Do you agree with options traders and short-sellers that these stocks are set to rally?
Use this list as a starting-off point for your own analysis. (Click here to access free, interactive tools to analyze these ideas.)
1. NVIDIA
2. V.F. Corporation
3. Clorox
4. Accenture
5. AutoNation
6. Walgreen
7. Tyson Foods
8. Campbell Soup
9. Moody's
10. Cablevision Systems
Interactive Chart: Press Play to compare changes in analyst ratings over the last two years for the stocks mentioned above. Analyst ratings sourced from Zacks Investment Research.
Kapitall's Eben Esterhuizen does not own any of the shares mentioned above. Options data sourced from Schaeffers, short data sourced from Yahoo! Finance, all other data sourced from Finviz.