NIO Stock Predictions: What Investors Should Expect in 2026 and Beyond

Nio (NIO) forecast

Nio has taken investors on a wild ride in 2025. While shares were up about 15% by late December, they had dropped more than 30% at one point and also surged more than 60% at their peak. Accelerating demand for its vehicles powered big gains in its stock price. However, it gave back the bulk of its gains following a considerable stock sale and an accusation by Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, GIC, that it had violated securities laws by inflating its revenue. GIC, a major Nio shareholder, has suffered major losses from its investment in the Chinese EV maker.

2026 forecast

As the past year has shown, it’s complicated to predict where a stock might head, as an unexpected event can cause shares to change direction quickly.

Wall Street analysts have a rather mixed outlook for Nio in 2026. Of the 27 analysts who have a rating on the stock, 11 rate it a hold and 10 rate it a buy. Additionally, four have a very bullish strong buy rating, and the rest have bearish sell or strong sell ratings. The overall analysts’ consensus is that the stock will be around $6.69 a share in 12 months. With Nio stock right around $5 a share in late December 2025, this implies that Wall Street expects the stock to gain more than 33% in the coming year.

I’m quite a bit less optimistic. I think GIC has made some serious allegations against the company, which could weigh on its share price in the coming year if they prove to be correct. Additionally, I see the potential for a deceleration in deliveries in the coming year if the economy slows. The company also regularly requires raising additional capital to fund its operations and expansion through stock sales, which it could do again next year. These factors drive my bearish view that shares could fall to around $4 in 2026.

2030 forecast

Longer-term forecasts for Nio are all over the map. Extremely bullish investors believe the stock will soar to about $70 a share. Factors driving that optimistic scenario include rapidly rising revenue and falling costs, enabling Nio to become consistently profitable and cash flow positive. To achieve this bull case, Nio would need to develop an EV that appeals to more middle-income purchasers while expanding into the U.S. market.

Meanwhile, even most bear cases for Nio are still wildly optimistic. Many forecasters expect Nio’s stock price to exceed $20 a share by 2030, representing a 300% surge from the current level. Driving this view is the expectation that EVs will account for 45% of global new car sales by 2030. As a leader in selling EVs, especially in China, Nio should benefit from this rise. It could deliver more than a 10% compound annual growth rate in revenue during this period. Under this scenario, it would need to trade at about two times sales to achieve a more than $20 stock price by 2030, which is more than double its current valuation multiple.

I’m much more conservative in my view of Nio. I think that if all goes well (sales grow at a double-digit compound annual rate, and the company turns the corner on profitability), shares of Nio could top $15 by 2030.

Key drivers of Nio’s stock performance

A few key factors will drive Nio’s stock performance in the coming years. The EV maker needs to continue growing revenue at a rapid pace. Vehicle sales were up 15% in the third quarter of 2025 to $2.7 billion, while its total revenue rose 16.7% to $3 billion. The company needs to continue growing revenue at a double-digit clip in the coming years to drive its stock price higher.

The other catalyst will be achieving sustainable profitability. Nio reported a net loss of $488.9 million during the third quarter of 2025. On a more positive note, its net loss has fallen by more than 30% over the past year, as its growing scale has helped narrow the loss. Nio will eventually need to start making money so that it can internally fund its operations.

The company ended the third quarter with about $5.1 billion of cash, giving it some breathing room. It raised around $1 billion of cash through a stock sale in September 2025. These stock sales are causing share dilution for existing investors and weigh on its share price because they increase the number of outstanding shares. By achieving sustainable profitability, Nio won’t need to dilute its existing investors, which should alleviate some of the downward pressure on its stock price.