A 1-in-100 Investor

Just as the first 100 days in office set the tone for any new president, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on how well investors do in their first 100 days. Some of our best -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved scores of 100 on stock selections in their first 100 days on CAPS. In this column, we're looking at our best members who made some of their best stock selections early on and seeing which ones they think will be best next.

One of our highest-rated CAPS members is jmt587, who sports a top 99.85 member rating. A member since November 2007, jmt587 currently has 200 active picks on CAPS out of 681 stock picks made. Achieving 80% accuracy, jmt587 has attracted 24 "groupies," CAPS members who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.

Here are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections and how they were rated.

Source: Motley Fool CAPS. *Price when call was made. Current score is how many points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P 500 index from the time of the call.

Let's look at what other CAPS members are saying about a few of these stocks and whether they agree with this leading player's assessment.

Degree of risk
Rooting for an underdog seems to be ingrained in the American psyche. That's why we like the walk-off home run, the come-from-behind victory, and the Davids toppling the Goliaths. But when it comes to investing, jmt587 thinks investors would be better served by checking such emotions at the door, particularly when it comes to iconic carmaker Ford: "I think pride, patriotism, and wrong-headed thinking is keeping this stock price higher than the underlying business warrants. I think their pension liability alone will sink them, with the way the market has performed."

There's something to be said for the bear case. General Motors and Chrysler were able to artificially reduce their cost structures by going through a government-backed restructuring, and although Japanese carmaker Toyota (NYSE:TM) also saw the wheels come off sales, it remains the world's biggest seller of cars at the moment. The Cash for Clunkers program that catapulted Ford cars to the top of the bestsellers list is ending next week and may very well have stolen future sales from the industry. It got a nice bump, but at what cost?

Yet I find the bull's position more compelling at the moment. Ford didn't need the jumpstart it got from the government's latest wealth-transfer program (even though I'm sure Ford appreciated it) because its lineup of vehicles is finally on the right track. The management team has proved itself as smart as heck, and the company's continued profitability in the immediate future is almost assured.

Checking emotions at the door is certainly warranted, but CAPS member thollist says that sometimes perception is reality.

Ford management appears to be taking the right steps to increase market share. Employees, both hourly and salary, believe in and are making sacrifices for the company while improving quality of the products. Public perception of Ford Motor Company is on the upswing implying future increases in market share and sales. Hoping to see the stock price @ $10-$12 by year end! Go Ford!!

Of course, when you're shaking off fears that you're going to be bankrupt, it's easier to stage a huge rally in your stock. Ford has outperformed every other carmaker's stock over the past year and it has tripled in value so far this year. It might just be able to keep its engine humming along.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest members in the CAPS investor-intelligence community have made their mark, but it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made -- all from a stock's CAPS page.

As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts. And since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?