Estimating dividends from the income statement alone
If a company has a consistent payout ratio, you can use the income statement to estimate what dividends it's likely to pay, without needing the balance sheet at all.
- Find net income on the income statement (typically the last line, which is why it's called the "bottom line").
- Divide net income by shares outstanding to get net income per share.
- Multiply by the company's typical payout ratio (expressed as a decimal) to estimate the annual dividend per share. Divide by four for the quarterly figure.
Example: A company has historically paid out 40%–46% of net income as dividends. Using the midpoint, 43%, as the typical payout ratio: if the company earned $10 million with five million shares outstanding, net income per share is $2.00. Multiply by 0.43 and you get an estimated dividend of $0.86 per share.
This approach only works reliably when a company's payout ratio is consistent. It won't be useful for companies with irregular dividend histories.