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American Outdoor Brands Corporation (NASDAQ:AOBC)
Q1 2020 Earnings Call
Aug 29, 2019, 5:00 p.m. ET

Contents:

  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good day, everyone. And welcome to American Outdoor Brands Corporation First Quarter Fiscal 2020 Financial Results Conference Call. This call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Liz Sharp, Vice President of Investor Relations, who will give us some information about today's call.

Liz Sharp -- Vice President of Investor Relations

Thank you, and good afternoon. Our comments today may contain predictions, estimates and other forward looking statements. Our use of words like anticipate, project, estimate, expect and tend, believe and other similar expressions is intended to identify those forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements also include statements regarding revenue, earnings per share, non-GAAP earnings per share, fully diluted share count and tax rate for future periods; product development, focus, objectives, strategies and vision; our strategic evolution, our market share and market demand for our product, market and Inventory conditions related to our products and in our industry in general. And growth opportunities and trends.

Our forward-looking statements represent our current judgment about the future, and they are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Risk factors and other considerations that could cause our actual results to be materially different are described in our securities filing, including our Forms 8-K, 10-K and 10-Q. You can find those documents as well as a replay of this call on our website at aob.com.

Today's call contains time-sensitive information that is accurate only as of this time. And we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Our actual results could differ materially from our statements today.

I have a few important items to note about our comments on today's call. First, we reference certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call. Our non-GAAP results and guidance exclude acquisition-related costs, including amortization, recall related expenses, one-time transition costs, fair value inventory step-up and the tax effect related to all those adjustments.

The reconciliations of GAAP financial measures to non-GAAP financial measures, whether or not they are discussed on today's call, can be found in today's Form 8-K filing as well as today's earnings press release, which are posted on our website. Also, when we reference EPS, we are always referencing fully diluted EPS. For detailed information on our results, please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended April 30, 2019.

I will now turn the call over to James Debney, President and CEO of American Outdoor Brands.

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Liz. Good afternoon, and thanks everyone, for joining us. With me on today's call is Jeff Buchanan, our Chief Financial Officer. Later in the call, Jeff will provide a recap of our financial performance as well as our updated guidance. Our results for the first quarter reflected our ability to remain focused on executing our strategic plan, while addressing the challenges of ongoing softness in the Firearms market.

Today, I'll share with you some details of our first quarter. Then Jeff will provide information on our financial results and our outlook for the coming fiscal year. As you know, we transfer firearms only to law enforcement agencies and federally licensed distributors and retailers, not directly to end consumers. That said adjusted NICS background checks are generally considered to be the best available proxy for consumer demand for firearms at retail.

In our fiscal Q1, background checks for handguns increased 2.1% year-over-year, while our unit shipped to distributors and retailers decreased by 7%. For the same period, background checks for long guns declined by 2.2% year-over-year, while our unit shipped to distributors and retailers declined 8.1%. This result was expected. Recall last quarter, when we cautioned that a Q1 correction relative to adjusted NICS was extremely likely, given the success of our year-end promotions and our strong outperformance of the market in Q4.

In a more recent update, July adjusted NICS were up only slightly year-over-year. And while adjusted NICS appears to be following its typical slow summer seasonality, this was the second largest sequential monthly decline in the past four years, indicating to us that the consumer market for firearms remains very soft. Distributor inventory of our firearms, increased sequentially from 127,000 units at the end of Q4 to 178,000 units at the end of Q1. Distributor increases in inventory are very typical this time of year, due to the seasonal slowdown in sales velocity in the channel as well as planned inventory build up leading into the full hunting and holiday shopping seasons.

This year, those inventories also reflect the success of our Q1 buy-in programs, that positioned participating distributors to take full advantage of our full promotions in Q2. In addition, distributor inventory grew in the long gun category as we proactively worked to reduce our inventory of a certain product line with enough time for that inventory to clear out of the channel in advance of an upcoming new product launch. Since the end of Q1, distributor inventories have increased and remain above our eight-week threshold.

Turning to new products, innovation to support our organic growth strategy remains the highest priority across our entire business. Within each of our divisions, creative new product development teams focus on innovating for the consumer, to meet their needs, wants and desires. In Firearms, we continue to prepare the several major new product launches scheduled for the current fiscal year. While I won't share details at this point, I can tell you that we look forward to providing consumers with some exciting new products from brands that they know and trust. So please, stay tuned.

Also, note that this is one of the reasons our internal inventory increased in Q1, as we built up inventories of our existing product portfolio in preparation for shifting capacity over to new products when they launch. In Outdoor Products & Accessories, our decision to organize into brand lanes is yielding exciting results. Each lane consists of a highly agile team that provides dedicated brand management, creative design, content production, product management, new product development and engineering. These entrepreneurial teams have been very productive over the last few quarters.

During Q1, we attended ICAST, one of the largest fishing trade shows in the world, to showcase our new BUBBA lifestyle brand and demonstrate our ever growing portfolio fishing tools, including the new BUBBA Electric Fillet Knife, which we launched in February. To say this show was a success is truly an understatement. Not only it was big packed non-stop with attendees, we came home with the Best of Category award in Cutlery, Hand Pliers and Tools for the BUBBA Electric Fillet Knife. I want to commend the team for their success in energizing the new BUBBA brand.

While it's still a small product line today, our BUBBA sales delivered year-over-year growth of 65% in Q1. BUBBA is a great example of the value that can be quickly created from small tuck-in acquisitions. We also made some exciting developments in our newly rebranded BOG line of shooting rest. During the quarter, we reengineered the BOG product line with innovation that delivers a variety of solutions for hunters.

Our global e-commerce and technology division is at the forefront of our digital innovation, providing best thing for our sales and marketing technologies that power our online business. We utilize our newly expanded digital capabilities to harvest the growth potential of our existing brands. We do that by building brand immersive and content rich websites, delivering intelligent, targeted and personalized campaigns and providing exceptional customer experiences.

During Q1, we demonstrated these capabilities with the launch of our new brand website for Caldwell, Frankford Arsenal, Wheeler and BOG. These new websites will allow our customers to connect with us and form deeper, emotional relationships with our brands. We've also made important organizational changes in support of these initiatives, combining the customer service functions from our Firearms and OP&A businesses, under the focused leadership of the E-commerce and Technology division, the customer experience grew, we will have the agility and focus we need to drive seamless and efficient customer interactions with all of our brands.

Now, I want to touch briefly on the topic of tariffs. Since much of our Outdoor Products & Accessories business involves China manufacturing, tariffs are obviously presenting us with an ever changing landscape. Our team in China has done their best to address this challenging environment. That said, as the tariff situation continues to escalate, opportunities to offset that impact have begun to rapidly diminish. As we continue to navigate this volatile and dynamic environment, we are continually exploring mitigation opportunities such as securing sources in other low cost countries.

However, our supply chain in China is relatively sophisticated compared to those available in other low cost countries. So rapid change is difficult. In addition, to bring in an entirely new manufacturer online takes time and the duration of the tariff is still very unclear. Later in the call, Jeff will share a bit more detail regarding the timing and financial impact of the tariffs as they stand today.

During the quarter, we achieved significant milestones at our new Missouri campus, which served primarily as the centralized logistics, warehousing and distribution operation for our entire business. First, we completed the transfer of our firearms logistics and warehousing operations to the new facility. This is important, since firearms are highly regulated products and the establishment of the strict control processes at the new facility was a key milestone. In fact, we just completed yet another full serial number counts at the facility on Saturday, and as we expected, we achieved 100% accuracy in that count.

Second, we consolidated and shuttered our Jacksonville, Florida business during Q1, eliminating 1000 square feet of office and warehouse space. These significant achievements coincided with a strong quarter and order flow driven by the success of our late summer firearm promotion. As a result, we are forced to prioritize firearm shipments over OP&A shipments, which in turn negatively impacted our OP&A revenues for the quarter. The vast majority of those delayed OP&A shipments were completed at the beginning of Q2.

We don't anticipate a recurrence of this type of conflict, since the transfer of the firearms logistics and warehousing operations and the shuttering of the Jacksonville business are now complete. In addition, the heightened quarter end activity provided us with meaningful insights that will be valuable as we grow our Missouri campus in the future. The next consolidation will be our original 145,000 square foot BTI office and warehouse space.

Our Missouri campus is an important strategic initiative, which will ultimately allow us to lower our costs, better serve our customers and support the achievement of our objective to be the leading provider of quality products for the shooting, hunting and rugged outdoor enthusiasts.

With that, I'll ask Jeff to provide more detail on our financial results and our updated guidance. Jeff?

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, James. Revenue for the quarter was $123.7 million, a decrease of 10.9% from the prior year. Revenue from our Firearms segment was $95.4 million, a decrease of 9.3%, and revenue from our OP&A segment was $33.2 million, a decrease of 10.8%. Intercompany eliminations were $5 million. It should be noted that the decline in our OP&A revenue was as a result of the timing of shipments to a major customer, as well as the impact of the shipping conflicts that James outlined. For the full year, we expect OP&A revenue to be up versus the prior year.

Now turning to gross margin. In Q1, the total company gross margin was 38.7% compared to 37.8% in the prior year. In the Firearms segment, gross margin increased to 37.1%. Although unfavorable product mix, increased promotional costs and higher manufacturing spending negatively impacted gross margin that impact was more than offset by favorable manufacturing absorption and inventory variance adjustments.

In the Outdoor Products segment, gross margin declined to 42.4%, primarily as a result of tariffs and increased shipments to larger customers receiving discounted pricing. In the quarter GAAP operating expenses were $46.7 million, compared to 38.9% million in Q1 of last year. On a non-GAAP basis, operating expenses were $41.5 million as compared to $33.5 million in the prior year. Expenses were higher because of increased compensation, advertising and marketing costs.

In addition, with the start-up of our new Missouri campus, operating expenses increased $3.8 million, which includes $1.6 million of depreciation, $1.6 million of shipping costs for firearms, which were previously reported in cost of goods sold, and $600,000 of other costs, including compensation and facility related costs.

Eventually, the impact of these additional costs will lessen as we consolidate other facilities. For the first quarter, GAAP EPS came in at a $0.04 loss as compared with EPS of $0.14 last year. Our non-GAAP EPS was $0.03 as compared with $0.21 in the year ago quarter. Note that the non-GAAP tax rate this quarter was nearly 54%, because non-deductible items represent a much higher percentage of the low pre-tax income number. Adjusted EBITDAS in the first quarter was $17.5 million, for a 14.1% EBITDAS margin, as compared with a 20.4% margin in Q1 of last year.

So now turning to the balance sheet. In Q1, cash used in operating activities was $29.1 million. Cash flow was primarily impacted by our $31.7 million build in inventories. As we have noted in the past, cash flow in the first half of the year is typically neutral to negative. During the summer months, when the retail sales cycle is at a low point in firearms and we have our seasonal shut down, we typically build our inventory levels.

We also had additional inventory this quarter, as a result of our planning for two items. First, safety stock for the ongoing consolidations into the Missouri campus. And second, inventory build in connection with planned new product launches for the second half of the year. Capex for the quarter was $3.7 million and we expect to spend a little over $25 million in capex for the full fiscal year, mostly on IT new products and maintenance.

At the end of Q1, we had $30.7 million of cash with $25 million drawn in our line of credit, a term loan of $79.8 million and bonds of $75 million. As a result, total net borrowings at the end of Q1 were $149.1 million. Our one year trailing EBITDAS is about $100 million. So our net leverage ratio is only about 1.5 to 1.

Now I will discuss guidance. We expect Q2 revenue to be in the range of $140 million to $150 million. At that revenue range, we expect GAAP EPS of between a negative $0.04 and breakeven, and non-GAAP EPS of between $0.03 and $0.07. The higher sequential revenue in the second quarter is not fully benefiting the bottom line estimate for several reasons, including the absence of favorable inventory variance adjustments, the impact of increased tariffs and increased promotional activities.

Although, we expect the slowness in the firearms that we saw over the summer to continue for the next few months, we are planning some exciting new product introductions for the second half of the fiscal year. Thus, for the full year, we are maintaining our expectations. The revenue will be in the range of $630 million to $650 million. Our profitability, however, will be impacted by the tariffs. Without that impact we believe our EPS would have been within our most recent guidance, but tariffs now make that result unlikely.

As a result, we now expect full year GAAP EPS to be between $0.41 and $0.49, and non-GAAP EPS to be between $0.70 and $0.78. All these estimates are based on our current fully diluted share count of 55 million shares and a tax rate for the full fiscal year of approximately 30%.

James?

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Jeff. With that, operator, please open up the call for questions from our analysts.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Cai Von Rumohr from Cowen. Your line is now open.

Cai Von Rumohr -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Yes. Thank you very much. So could you give us a little more color on the Chinese tariff issue? Both in terms of the incremental impact you're assuming and what that assumes regarding how long the tariff is in place. You also mentioned, I think last quarter that you would try to secure price concessions from your suppliers and implement price hikes of your own, maybe discuss those issues?

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

Right. Hi Cai, it's Jeff. Yes, so I mean, you know, we said that the guidance EPS like for the year, the amount that we had lowered it by -- was just a little over $5 million and it was attributed almost entirely to -- on tariffs. So that's like sort of the number. It's that the impact is mainly in the second half of the year because, we currently have inventory. But basically, what happened, lists 1 through 3, went from 25% to 30%, So it's 5% higher than we thought. And then, of course, you have the new list 4 that was a 10%. A lot of people talked about the deferral of list 4 but list 4 really was 4A and 4B. And most of our products were on for 4A. And that was not delayed until December. That starts on September 1, and the cost in that was raised from 10% to 15%.

So that's -- that those are the tariff impacts. It's obviously that the amount that we are estimating in guidance is not the full amount of the tariff impact. We are assuming that we've successfully undertaken some mitigation efforts like price increases. We're sort of reaching the end of vendor concessions because we've already -- we've been negotiating that for a while. But we'll -- we'll continue to work on that. We'll continue to work on getting vendors outside of China. But as James mentioned in his prepared remarks, other Asian companies don't have a sophisticated supply chain, can't acquire, procure all the material and components that we need. And it takes a long time and we don't know how long it's going to last. We don't -- we don't know how long the tariffs --

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

We got to be really careful, Cai, when we are taking price increases because we can -- if we're not careful, we will just become uncompetitive. We'll keep a close eye on what's happening at retail.

Cai Von Rumohr -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Got it. So if I'm just sort of simplify this, the tariff impact predominantly hits in the second half because you entered the year with some buffer inventory. Therefore, if those tariffs persist at that level, the amount probably would be larger next year, is that a fair assumption or I mean...

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

Largely in 2021, yeah.

Cai Von Rumohr -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Yes. Okay, got it. Okay. And last one...

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

But our expected impact for the second half of '20, on the tariffs as they stand right now is in our guidance.

Cai Von Rumohr -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Got it. That's helpful...

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. And what you described there Cai is that tariff are here to stay. There's a lot of uncertainty about the timing of tariffs, whether they're here to stay or not. So if they did stay, then obviously I think you could go back to taking some price increases because the market won't be able to stand it.

Cai Von Rumohr -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Got it. Last one. Maybe give us -- so what are we looking for, for cash flow for the year, a rough range?

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

Well, we are looking for a positive cash flow and like neutral to positive on cash flow in quarter two. We typically first half of the year is, like neutral to negative. Second half of the year we're looking for a really strong on cash flow, on par with the prior year because quarter one was a cash outflow because of the build in inventory.

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, absolutely. We've invested significant amount in inventory as you can see on the balance sheet. That's for a number of reasons. One, we've spoken about a lot before, which was the transfer of the firearms business in terms of logistics and warehouse in to the new DC in Missouri. Of course, we're in, as I had mentioned in the prepared remarks, we're in the summer period, which is extremely slow, we always build inventory. And then we have major new product launches coming down the pipe as well, which we've built inventories about as well of our existing portfolio, because we're going to have to dedicate a large portion of our capacity to building the new products prior to launch and then obviously off the launch to satisfy the demand.

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. And Cai, also the numbers that we are giving for guidance. It's roughly the same as last year, except last year, we spent a lot on our logistics -- or building our logistics operations center in our our Missouri campus, and we don't have that this year. So we do think that the cash flow is going to be quite good for the year.

Cai Von Rumohr -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Excellent. Thank you so much.

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Cai.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question is from James Hardiman from Wedbush Securities. Your line is now open.

James Hardiman -- Wedbush Securities -- Analyst

Hey, Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my call.

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Hi, James.

James Hardiman -- Wedbush Securities -- Analyst

So I guess first question just on the quarter. I think people care more about the outlook than the quarter. But you came in at the low end of the earnings range, you've come in toward the high end or better for -- it seems like a while. Maybe, talk a little bit about, what in the quarter wasn't quite as good as you would hoped? It doesn't seem like the tariff issue really pinched you. It seems like that's more of the later year -- later portion of the year issue but just maybe talk about how it came in versus your expectations?

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Okay. I mean, as far as the top line is concerned, the entire miss from the midpoint of our guidance and actually a bit more was almost entirely related to the shipping constraints that James mentioned. All right. And so at the end of the quarter, when you're trying to -- you're limited by manpower and you're trying to prioritize what goes out, where we prioritized like firearms because the higher ASP based on the ability to go ahead and ship. So that is most of it. And then from an earnings standpoint, if we had done that, then we would have been probably spot on, on the earnings number. Another bit of a difference as compared to the prior comparable quarter is that our earnings tax rate or our tax rate was above 50%, mainly because of some non-deductible items that impacts you more when your taxable income is lower. So those two items alone, it basically accounts for everything.

James Hardiman -- Wedbush Securities -- Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. And then as I think about the full-year guidance and the second quarter guidance, I mean, if we hit the midpoint of the second quarter, you're basically going to do $0.08 in the first half of the year, which would mean you'd have to do $0.64 in the back half. Yeah, I know there's some things with Missouri, but walk us through why it's going to be such a dramatic uptick in earnings? It seems like it's probably more margin than it is sales. But again, given the fact that tariffs are the big issue in the back half, how are you going to accomplish that big ramp?

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

Well. I mean, basically the earnings, the EPS, is as a result of the strong like top line in the second half of the year. When you have -- as you know, you've been an analyst here for several years. When firearms is -- by putting out that much product, then we really would get a lot of efficiencies. And we have a lot of -- we have a -- a lot of new product introductions in firearms for the second half of the year that we're really quite bullish on. So those new products are accounting for a large portion of the sales in the second half of the year. In fact, those new products are part of the reason that we have a lot of inventory now because we're shifting the lines of manufacturer and we had to build certain products that we won't -- we won't be able to manufacture in the second half of the year.

So that sort of had a dual impact on the quarter. On Outdoor products, a lot of the timing and pacing of the quarter in Outdoor products is dependent on large customers, especially like one or two large customers that we have. We have a lot of new products and again, fairly bullish on the second half of the year in Outdoor products. As I -- we do believe that, so Outdoor products was down this quarter, but we think for the whole year it's going to be up high single digits, probably like mid to upper single digits. So, again, we think there's like strong growth in Outdoor products.

James Hardiman -- Wedbush Securities -- Analyst

That's helpful. Then one last question, if I may, along the same lines. Obviously, there's the expectation that new products are really going to drive shipments in the back half. I guess with that in mind, why shouldn't I be concerned about the inventory -- the distributor inventory numbers here, 1.78, I think that number was more like 1.45 a year ago. At what point do we need to be concerned that distributors are going to be less willing to buy that new product that you're going to try to ship in, in the back half?

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I'll start off by saying, James, I'm not concerned about the level of inventory, we will have two step distribution partners. We're moving toward the busiest season, as you know, we'll soon be in the full hunting season. We'll quickly transition into the holiday season. Those are peak periods at retail as we all know, adjusted NICS checks for those month tells us that. And even moving through into the new year, the first three months, I would actually have to take out January, but certainly February, March and somewhat April, all are strong months as well. And typically that's why in the Firearms business, we've always ended with the second half of the year much stronger than the first half of the year. So we'll have our normal cadence of promotions in place, we will be doing both bundle promotions. We'll be doing our typical show special, spring buy-in promotions where I'd describe those before where it's buy six get one free, for example. It's not always that number, but that's a typical number. Those promotions will be adequately strong as in to match the market. So, we'll see if the market is strong, then we dial those back. If it's weak, if it weakens more, we will dial them up, and we'll be aggressive. Okay. We have plenty of inventory to allow us to do that and we have plenty of capacity.

So, I think to survive in this market, which is a soft market, I think we can all agree on that is you both need to be aggressive in your new product development and aggressive in your promotional activity. And we are doing both those, and we have proven and demonstrated over the past few years that we are very good at both of them.

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. And I just wanted to add a bit. And I've mentioned this each year, but the promotional activity that we do, we measure the cost of the promotional activity against the benefit of the absorption in the factory. And I generally have found that we are ahead even when we strongly promote.

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. And you can draw a direct comparison with one of our primary competitors in terms of margin as well. But also going back to the subject of inventory, we still have less inventory in terms of units with our two step distribution partners.

James Hardiman -- Wedbush Securities -- Analyst

Makes sense. Thanks, guys.

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, James.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question is from Scott Stember with CL King. Your line is now open.

Scott Stember -- CL King. -- Analyst

Good evening. And thanks for taking my questions.

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Hi, Scott.

Scott Stember -- CL King. -- Analyst

Hey, question on the second quarter guidance. Assuming, I guess a modestly up NICS environment and you talked about how there was a little bit of payback in the first quarter because of the fourth quarter promotions. Assuming that's gone and assuming that some of these constraints on the Outdoor product side are gone, am I thinking of this wrong. And shouldn't you be predicting to maybe up a little bit or flat in the second quarter? Or is there something else where am I off with my timing for some of those things to go away?

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

You know, I guess there is a soft market out there. And so we're, our guidance is based on our view of the market out there. We also in Outdoor products, we are also forecasting that the increase that I talked about comes almost entirely in the second half of the year. Again, because of the pacing of the orders from major customer in Outdoor products. So it's the combination of the soft firearms environment and the customer order pacing of Outdoor products has led us to the guidance that we're giving.

Scott Stember -- CL King. -- Analyst

Got it. And just flushing out the operating expenses a little bit, you talked about, I guess in priority of, I guess, impact compensation expense and marketing and advertising. Is it fair to assume that's the order? And then also just trying to get a sense of, what you would expect for the entire year for operating expenses?

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

So our first quarter is usually our lowest. I do think operating expenses are going to kind of go up, $2 million or $3 million and then sort of plateau out the rest of the year. Just remember a couple of things on operating expenses. One is that we have moved some shipping costs from cost of goods sold down to opex. Also, like remember that we are still in the build mode like for the DC and so we are still operating duplicates on facilities. Just like for example, we have like two facilities operating in Missouri right now. The new Missouri campus as well as the old campus that was there when we bought Battenfeld, which is about 150,000 square foot warehouse.

Most of those duplicate cost will have been -- it will be gone by the third and fourth quarter. And then we actually expect additional savings in 2021 as we move to other areas, as we close down other areas and kind of like finish the moved into the DC.

Scott Stember -- CL King. -- Analyst

Got it. Yeah, I guess I'm just trying to figure out, no, you haven't given guidance obviously for 2021. And we're a little ways out, but I'm just trying to look at where you would look or how much eventually comes out of the equation here related to the new DC. So we can get an idea of, what kind of leverage you could get beyond this year because, this year is obviously going to be a challenge in some of the numbers on the opex line, are going to be --

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

Right.

Scott Stember -- CL King. -- Analyst

-- significantly above last year.

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

Well, like last time, we said about $0.07 were the expenses that we had this year that won't be repeated next year and those will almost all be in opex. And then, so I would probably just use that as your number of comparing opex in this year to next year.

Scott Stember -- CL King. -- Analyst

And just one last follow up on that. The marketing and advertising, I guess just -- would it be safe to assume in this tough environment that it probably will stay at these elevated levels for foreseeable future?

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, actually. Yes. And then, of course, if you're launching new products in the back half of the year, there is more advertising associated with these -- these new product launch costs, in other words.

Scott Stember -- CL King. -- Analyst

Got it. That's all I have. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question is from Steve Dyer from Craig-Hallum. Your line is now open.

Steve Dyer -- Craig-Hallum -- Analyst

Thank you. Good afternoon.

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Hi, Steve.

Steve Dyer -- Craig-Hallum -- Analyst

Just want to drill down a little bit more on second quarter guidance. So we've had three straight months of positive mix, August should be up pretty significantly according to our checks. And again, the down 10% revenue at the mid range, which would imply, I think a little bit better than that and Outdoor products a little bit worse than that and Firearms. It seems like a large delta vis-a-vis, how you guys have been running with the mix, sort of over time. This should be the second consecutive quarter of a fairly big deviation to the downside. Is there any sort of additional color you can give timing wise or why that would be? I'm assuming you don't feel like you're losing share.

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

No. I mean, you said it's a big deviation to the downside based -- but that's just based on your assumption on NICS. So, I don't think -- I don't think we really know what's going to happen on NICS. But our distributor inventory is a little bit elevated. And, as James said, we're comfortable with it, but it's higher than it was last quarter. So, I don't think I could add anything more than I had told -- that I'd mentioned earlier on the call, that mid point is what we have come out at.

Steve Dyer -- Craig-Hallum -- Analyst

In presumably because I don't think you have in the past. I mean, presumably you're not, until August comes out in its final, I mean, you're not including any point-of-sale data that you're seeing month-to-date. I mean, our checks are suggesting up on the order of 20% year-over-year in August....

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

And yeah -- I mean, obviously, this is the one quarter that we release earnings without having the NICS of the -- in essence, the first quarter of the next or the first month of the next quarter. So I guess we'll just have to wait and see what -- like what happens.

Steve Dyer -- Craig-Hallum -- Analyst

So presumably anything more than, call it flattish for August and September would be, I guess, upside to your sort of base assumptions going in?

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I probably do -- I don't think we -- I think we have a policy of not commenting on our degree of certainty of our guidance or any, like any potential changes. I can say this is -- that's great on your -- on your checks. But it's...

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah Steve, I love your NICS number.

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah.

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

I hope that comes true. If we have the 20% it will take us to one of the highest in the last five years.

Steve Dyer -- Craig-Hallum -- Analyst

Well, it's through three weeks and it's through one state. So anyway. Well, I'll move on. So obviously a bankrupt supplier went bankrupt or a distributor went bankrupt in the quarter. Did that have any material impact on you guys or the channel period, I guess?

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

No, you know it hasn't had an impact because that was a long time in the making. Probably hadn't like ship for quite a while. Like what we have reserved with respect to that distributor happened last quarter -- I think probably there is some dumping of inventory as a result of it. But...

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I think we covered that last time as well. And we said they had ceased to become really relevant for the last 18 months let's say prior to that bankruptcy.

Steve Dyer -- Craig-Hallum -- Analyst

All right, got it. Last one for me. So you guys have a couple of $75 million notes due, one in June of 2020, one in August. Any commentary on plans for that, your ability to refi, etc?

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Yeah. We've already spoken with our banks. I don't think there's going to be any problem on refinancing those. We'll probably undertake that effort early autumn and interest rates are actually down from the last time that we engaged in these kinds of negotiations and the outlook obviously is fairly flat yield curve. So I think that the negotiations should be good with respect to like what we want to do.

Steve Dyer -- Craig-Hallum -- Analyst

All right, got it. Thanks, guys.

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks. Steve.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question is from Mark Smith from Lake Street. Your line is now open.

Mark Smith -- Lake Street -- Analyst

Hi, guys.

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Hi Mark.

Mark Smith -- Lake Street -- Analyst

First off, can you just walk through, how much new products typically mix in sales?

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

Well, it typically is -- It's typically is not typical. But, I would say that it ranges, it was like 15% this quarter. It's been as high as 25%, 28%. So I think it ranges from, let's say, 30% -- to 12% or 15%, sort of depending on that -- like what's happened in the last several quarters. OP&A is 20% this quarter. That's probably like more of a constant because OP&A has a very sort of formalized process of introducing new products every year, whereas in Firearms it's not as regular.

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, it's a steady stream of new products come out of OP&A. Development times tend to be a little shorter. Development times for Firearms tend to be extremely long, pretty intensive in terms of consuming resources can be capital intensive as well depending on tooling requirements and so on. So that's why, we talk about major product launches rather than line extensions and so on. And we're very excited about the major product launch that we have coming up this fiscal year.

Mark Smith -- Lake Street -- Analyst

Okay. And then can you talk a little bit about the cadence of sales primarily in Firearms throughout the quarter?

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

In the quarter 1, you mean?

Mark Smith -- Lake Street -- Analyst

Yeah.

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, it was back loaded, so heavily back loaded. Not unusual in the summer months, maybe this quarter was a bit more backloaded, because of bringing up to DC. So, we had a situation which we had to move a lot of inventory to the DC. In the past with the Springfield facility being shut down for a couple months toward the end of the quarter, we probably shipped a little earlier than we did this quarter but like the Missouri campus is not shut down. And so the combination of everything made it probably more backhanded than it typically is...

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

I think another big influence on Firearms in terms of our order patents for the quarter was -- our success in Q4 and we described that in a lot of detail. And as you know, we over performed versus adjusted NICS by quite a large amount. And we said, in Q&A there will be a correction in Q1. So there's no doubt in my mind in the first two months of the quarter, distributors and retailers alike took a bit of a break because we've taken in some inventory at the end of Q4 before starting ordering again late in Q1. And that's one of the reasons that we got so compressed at the end of the quarter and had that capacity constraint at the DC.

Mark Smith -- Lake Street -- Analyst

Okay, and then this question has been asked a little bit. But just to ask it directly, you know what are you seeing in kind of current firearm demand and as you look into your crystal ball here, what you see from the customers out there today, that gives you that leads to your guidance hearing Q2 and a heavily back end loaded year excluding kind of new products?

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

I think, it's really what we said is the firearms part of the business is just following normal seasonality. So we're slow right now. We expect it to be slow. We expect it to start pick up at the back end of this month even but more so it will accelerate as we go into September and October and then into the gift giving season. So we think just normal seasonality is at play. We talk to our retail partners and our two step distribution partners all the time. Everybody is optimistic, but I will say cautiously optimistic in terms of a crystal ball, it's offline right now, nobody knows. There are lots of macro influences that can start to really kick into gear. So but I think I'll just come back to it. It's one of those years where it's flattish again. We've used that term before. We'll use it again.

Mark Smith -- Lake Street -- Analyst

Okay, and then anything happening for end users here in the used firearm market that is maybe skewing NICS data away from what we're seeing from you guys?

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

Nothing that we've picked up on. We monitor that. We do, do a monthly market share analysis and components of that is used firearm sales that seem to be fairly consistent. Some retailers are better at it than other retailers, but nothing out there.

Mark Smith -- Lake Street -- Analyst

Okay. And then last one for me, just a housekeeping item, the kind of guidance that you gave on tax, I believe it was 30% for the full year. I assume that's on a GAAP basis.

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, that's exactly and that is for the full year. But that's because we had over 50% rate in Q1. So the rest of the quarters will probably be around 27% or 28%.

Mark Smith -- Lake Street -- Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you.

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Mark.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Maxine [phonetic] from Mac Financial Services. Your line is now open.

Maxine -- Mac Financial Services -- Analyst

Good afternoon, guys.

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Hi, Max.

Maxine -- Mac Financial Services -- Analyst

So you've already addressed all of my financial analyst type questions, so let me ask a couple of gun guy question. About a quarter or two ago, you have reorganized Crimson Trace and Electro Optics. So I played a lot of optics, both the SHOT Show, Ray [phonetic] I love them. Can you talk about possibly what the industry acceptance is of the brand, particularly as Crimson Trace moving from the traditional lasers to now being an optics company?

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Sure. That's -- it's progress. It's going well. Crimson Trace is an incredibly strong brand, but as you quite rightly say, it is focused very much just on lasers. So moving into the optics, we knew it would be slower to begin with. But I have to say that we are getting some good traction. We think this is a great growth potential over the long term. So I don't see any, favorable step change in terms of revenue or taking market share in the near-term. But I am very confident over the next five years.

Maxine -- Mac Financial Services -- Analyst

Awesome. Moving along the product line, so one of the ones we haven't heard much about recently was Gemtech. So any thoughts on this supressing market? And as it relates to Gemtech do you foresee making future investments into it to try to steal market share from your larger competitors? Or is it more or less, hey, let's maintain what we can do with it and then just wait for something big to happen in this depressing market. And a follow up to that is, is Gemtech going to be rolled into the unified distribution center or was that still going to be separate?

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Okay, so starting with the first part, Gemtech. Another great brand. Very strong, got great consumer awareness. So we're very happy with value in that brand as well. Suppressor the market pretty soft right now. I think we're all aware if there had been a change in legislation, then it would be a different picture. But legislation change did not take place. So for us right now, it's just steady away. Let's keep our market share. We'll start to invest slowly in it over the next few years in terms of new product introductions. We have some new products in the pipeline. So, again, stay tuned on those, but other than that, it's really a soft market.

Maxine -- Mac Financial Services -- Analyst

And I guess the last question is so, I guess today and yesterday there's the new gun legislation bills being heard in Massachusetts. Any thoughts or comments to it as potential impact, that would impact you as a local manufacturer?

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

None of the proposed laws would impact us as a manufacturer, and they you know the laws would have -- regardless of what Massachusetts does, the laws would have little impact on us because Massachusetts, in terms of the volume of firearms that it consumes is very low.

Maxine -- Mac Financial Services -- Analyst

Okay, as far as, there was nothing that was going specific -- there none of the proposals were going after manufacturers specifically.

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

No.

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

No.

Maxine -- Mac Financial Services -- Analyst

Okay, and I guess my last question, if I can sneak on in, so going through the 10-Q, there was a couple of new litigation notes. So one, I think on the T/CR22 and then another frivolous lawsuit, any commentary or any color you can make on that?

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

No, other than what we specify in the Q. I think --

Maxine -- Mac Financial Services -- Analyst

Now I'm really excited about all the new product innovations that are coming out later this year. I'm wondering what those are.

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

We're excited about them too.

Maxine -- Mac Financial Services -- Analyst

Awesome. Thank you very much, guys.

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Mack. Take care.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, I'm showing no further questions. I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. James Debney, President and CEO, for closing remarks.

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, operator. I want to thank the American Outdoor Brands team for their commitment and dedication to excellence. Great job, everybody. Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. And we look forward to speaking with you next quarter.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

Duration: 48 minutes

Call participants:

Liz Sharp -- Vice President of Investor Relations

P. James Debney -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Jeffrey D. Buchanan -- Chief Financial Officer

Cai Von Rumohr -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

James Hardiman -- Wedbush Securities -- Analyst

Scott Stember -- CL King. -- Analyst

Steve Dyer -- Craig-Hallum -- Analyst

Mark Smith -- Lake Street -- Analyst

Maxine -- Mac Financial Services -- Analyst

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