In this episode of Rule Breaker Investing, David Gardner is joined by Motley Fool contributor Dan Kline and Motley Fool analyst Tim Beyers for the 12th Market Cap Game Show. Play along with the hosts and get to know 10 interesting stocks from a broad spectrum of industries. Discover their strengths and weaknesses, future potential, and much more.
To catch full episodes of all The Motley Fool's free podcasts, check out our podcast center. To get started investing, check out our quick-start guide to investing in stocks. A full transcript follows the video.
This video was recorded on June 16, 2020.
David Gardner: Every calendar quarter -- March, June, September, December -- long about the penultimate Wednesday, we've been playing the Market Cap Gameshow. Our format is simple, two guest star contestants giving their best guesses at the market cap, the overall value of some of the best-known or most interesting stocks on the market. And so many of those have had their market caps radically revised downward, and then in some cases back upward, just since our last market cap gameshow at the end of March. So, extra fun then for you too, playing along and learning at home. Yep, that's right, it's time to gather the kids and the in-laws, invite your neighbors over, physically distanced, and put your market cap hat on, well, your market cap thinking cap for this, the 12th installment of the market cap gameshow, this week only on Rule Breaker Investing.
And welcome back to Rule Breaker Investing. Great to have you with me this week. One of my favorite weeks of every quarter is the second to last week of the quarter, that's when we have the market cap gameshow. I know a lot of you have been listening all the way through. This is our 12th, that means we've been doing this for three years. This is the end of the third year of market cap gameshows, and we've seen a lot of great talent come through, making some great market cap calls over the years. And I have two new players this week.
Before I introduce them, let me just mention a couple of housekeeping items. The first and most prominent is that this is, sort of, a short month for this podcast, because we always come out on Wednesdays and the last Wednesday of the month is in fact next week. That's right, it's going to be June 24th, the final Wednesday in June. It may not feel like June is ending that quickly, but at least for this podcast, it does. And that's my way of reminding you that it is mailbag next week. We'd love to hear from you [email protected], is our email address, you can tweet us @RBIPodcast on Twitter. Questions you might have, stories to tell. If you want to throw a poem our way, we're always open to poetry as well. We've done a lot of that in the Rule Breaker Investing podcast of yore. So, everything goes, as always, usually I bring out a cavalcade of guest stars as well. We have all that to look forward to next week, but we need you to power it up. It is, in fact, your voice that makes the mailbag. So, again, [email protected].
I'll mention that this month I led off with Essays From Yesterday, Vol. 1, if you remember my tastes with great less filling thought, that would be one example. And I, in particular, two weeks ago asked you if you like this format. And for some feedback from you. So, I'd love to hear from you if you'd like to see a Vol. 2 in future or not.
Then last week Five Stocks For America. My latest Five-Stock Sampler. We also reviewed two samplers picked in June's past. And in fact, I mentioned one of them is Five Stocks Riding The Bull Market. And at the time, when we recorded last week, it was losing to the market. And I mentioned, we're down just a couple of percentage points, but I said, this doesn't end 'till June 21st. So, we still had some time for those five stocks to get up above the market, and, boy! over the last week haven't they? Because Zillow, Wayfair, Impinj, Pegasystems, and iRobot as a Five-Stock Sampler are now up 5.6% on the market having surged, I think in part due to Wayfair. So, down the stretch they come; I'll probably say that a little bit later this podcast as well. But, yeah.
And I have a very high hit rate that I'm trying to protect. I think I've beaten the market across all 25 now with 88% of them, 22 of the 25 Five-Stock Sampler historically have, as a group, beaten the market. Which is a ridiculous percentage that I probably can't possibly keep up. Done over five years now, but that's why maybe I care a little bit extra when we get down the last week for a sampler that's closed, like, Five Stocks Riding The Bull Market. So, a little note from there. But, yeah, if you had any reflections on my Five Stocks For America or on the samplers we reviewed last week, that would be good fodder for this month's mailbag as well.
And the last thing I'll mention is that I love to hear from you in terms of what you think about our podcast, so leave us a review on your favorite podcast portal iTunes, Spotify, [Alphabet's]Google Play. We love to hear what you think of our podcast, throw me some stars, let us know how we're doing.
Alright, well, if you are a Motley Fool member, you might have spent one or more hours in the last month or so watching Motley Fool Live. The URL is Live.Fool.com; and it is a members-only offering and two people who have particularly distinguished themselves on Motley Fool Live, having produced hours and hours of wonderful member-focused content, including interviews with outside CEOs and authors, but also just taking your questions are Dan Kline and Tim Beyers. Dan, a longtime writer for The Motley Fool. He mentioned off-air to me that this is the final Motley Fool podcast he hasn't already been on, so it's a delight to have Dan on for the first time. And then Tim, who's been on many times before often on mailbags is a longtime member of my Rule Breakers team. But Tim, like Dan, has been doing yeoman's work at Live.Fool.com. And boy! I have watched hours and hours of Fool TV myself. It's been a pleasure occasionally to appear there. We had a Rule Breaker hour last week, and seem to be well received, so we'll probably do more of that in future.
I'll also mention that if you're a Rule Breakers member, you got to see me interview the DocuSign CEO, Dan Springer, this week; which I'll probably mention when I have Tim and Dan on very shortly.
So, Tim and Dan, it's great to have you guys on. And let me just mention before we start that this is the market cap gameshow. So, for example, if you take a company like, Etsy, ticker symbol ETSY, and you see that the company is trading at around $84/share right now, and you notice the company has around 115 million shares outstanding, you can simply multiply Etsy's share price into the number of shares outstanding, to get the market capitalization, what we think of as the value of Etsy, if you try to buy the corporation out right now. That's not the true definition because, enterprise values which factors in debt, for example, if Etsy had, and fortunately it doesn't, tons of debt on its balance sheet then you'd actually have to pay more for that company. It would have a higher enterprise value than its market cap, but we don't get that technical with this game show, we just take market caps which are probably one of my five favorite measures when we look at stocks. Keeps things simple, helps you see the big picture. And you could look at a company like Etsy and say, "Well, it's $9.7 billion today, could I see that being a $100 billion company one day?" It starts enabling you to picture forward how much or how little you think a stock price, a stock's value could rise. And in the case of Etsy, since it was one of my Five Stocks For America last week, I'm happy to say it's risen over the past week, but more importantly, it's risen a lot over the past several years when it's been a Rule Breaker recommendation.
When was the last time you went out for breakfast?
Tim Beyers: Oh, man! A while ago. I'm going to say two years ago.
Gardner: Isn't that amazing, I mean, two years? A lot of us, it might just be two months, but it feels like two years. So, I don't know whether, when you go out for breakfast, Tim, are you typically going to sit-down somewhere, a fun place somewhere in the Greater Denver area or are we talking fast casual?
Beyers: I think we're talking fast casual, but boy! do I like doing an IHOP, something like that, that's pretty fun.
Gardner: Yeah. And IHOP still remains, when it is open, open 24 hours, right?
Beyers: Right. Yeah.
Gardner: Yeah. So, it's not just for breakfast, it never was. Alright. Well, I wonder, because we can often get into coffee wars, and I've seen this from you guys on Motley Fool Live and I hear it on podcasts, everybody has their favorite coffee. I am thinking in particular right now, Tim, Dunkin' Donuts and Dunkin' Donuts coffee. Do you have an opinion about Dunkin' Donuts coffee?
Beyers: I have no opinion about Dunkin' Donuts coffee, except that I don't think you can go to New York or anywhere in New England and say that you like Starbucks and get out alive.
Dan Kline: I'm from Boston or the Greater Boston area, and I've said this on air and I'm pretty sure I'm not allowed to go home.
Gardner: [laughs] Excellent. Well, of course, the company in question then, Tim, it's been an interesting time for this company, is Dunkin' Donuts. The ticker symbol is DNKN. Tim, what, by your best estimation is Dunkin' Donuts market cap today?
Beyers: Boy! This is going to be interesting. So, if I say Starbucks is around, I'm going to say $80 billion to $90 billion, I'm going to say Dunkin' is about half of that, maybe a little less. So, I'm going to say $29.7 billion.
Gardner: Alright. And, Dan Kline, higher or lower?
Kline: I'm going to say lower.
Gardner: And the correct answer is $5.35 billion.
Beyers: Oh, my God! [laughs]
Kline: Tim, I almost said lower, I think it's about $20 billion, so just to give you an idea. [laughs]
Gardner: [laughs] And feel free to say that to make your fellow guest contestant feel better at any point. Yeah, I don't think I would have done very well with this one myself, as I've often said playing the market cap gameshow, I like to be Alex Trebek, and it's a pleasure to have smart people take their best shot. Yeah, so guys the stock touched down at about $40 in March, it's back around $65 now. It's a company that's been an underperformer over the last five years, underperforming the market by about 25%. It is up, just for, because I'm going to be using five year returns throughout; the market, over the last five years, is up about 45%. So, that's been, you know, about an average five years, if you take it from then to now. And so, this company being up 20% is 25% behind the market. Any final thoughts on Dunkin', how about, Dan; you got this one, right?
Kline: Yeah, it's an interesting business because they've tried really hard to go into premium and nobody wants that from them. What they should focus on is making their breakfast products better, their donuts have gotten progressively worse over my life. [laughs] And I understand that's not the margin that the drinks are, but they'd sell more drinks if we bought more doughnuts. So, I'd like to see them go look at a Voodoo Doughnuts or some of these chains that are doing donuts really well and have a premium doughnut and use that as a way to get me to try an espresso, instead of having a mediocre espresso and not charging as much as Starbucks.
Gardner: Beautifully put. You know, I think that's very real Rule Breaker-y, fits in very well with the Rule Breakers podcast. Tell Dunkin' Donuts to put the donuts back in donuts.
Kline: [laughs] And they're actually no longer Dunkin' Donuts, they've dropped donuts from their name.
Gardner: You're right, it's Dunkin'. Alright, well, stock No. 2, turning now to you, Dan Kline. And, Dan, I know you are a big fan of the travel and leisure industry. Could you just give me a couple of reasons why?
Kline: I like to travel. So, you know for me, when I want to invest in something, it tends to be things that are important in my world, and I don't go a month -- this is the longest I've ever been at home in 19, in almost 20 years of marriage. So, I'm someone who likes to be places. I like to gamble. I like to sit on a Caribbean island. I like to be on a cruise ship. I'm not invested in all those places, because they're [laughs] not all great businesses, but, you know, it's an industry that's near-and-dear to my heart. And you know, you take something like a Booking.com. Well, I use Priceline like, you know, that's like a casino for me, trying to save the most money possible.
Gardner: [laughs] And, Dan, where did that come from? Did you have wanderlust when you were a little kid, or were you ever, ever really a little kid, Dan?
Kline: I was not great at being a little kid. [laughs] I think that's fair to say. I always wanted to be older. But, yeah, I've always had wanderlust and I've always had a reason to not move. So, we lived in the New York, New England area for a long time before moving to Florida. The challenge is, my wife doesn't like to travel. So, that makes it a little bit difficult sometimes.
Gardner: Understood. Now, how many cruises would you say you've been on at this point in your life?
Kline: It's something I didn't start doing until about 18 months ago, so a dozen.
Gardner: Wow! 12 in 18 [laughs] months!
Kline: But mostly just weekend trips. Like, when you live in Florida and you play a little blackjack and you throw some money in the casino, it's basically free. So, it's not that I would choose to cruise that often, it's just they're offering me these Friday to Monday. And it's a great way, as you know with what we do, to not have a good internet connection and not be able to work.
Gardner: [laughs] Dan, what is your favorite cruise line brand?
Kline: So, generally it's Royal Caribbean, and that's largely because they're catering to, sort of, closer to my age base. Carnival is a little bit more of a Party Line. I've never been on a Norwegian Cruise, they're probably pretty similar, but some of the other sub brands, they tend to skew a lot older. And I don't know about you, if I'm on vacation, I don't want to have to wear, like, a tuxedo [laughs] on Friday night for dinner, I want a little bit of a casual feel.
Gardner: Understood, Dan. Well, Carnival might not be your favorite brand then, but it is stock No. 2 for this edition of the market cap gameshow. Dan Kline, your best shot, the market capitalization of CCL, that's the ticker symbol, for Carnival Corp?
Kline: Oh, boy! It's taken a hit recently, I'm going to say $5.4 billion.
Gardner: Tim, higher or lower?
Beyers: Well, I'm not going to agree with the negotiator on this, Mr. Priceline, I'm going to say lower, David.
Gardner: And I again sympathize with both you guys, because you're off by quite a bit, and I think I would have been too because who would have thought that Carnival Cruise Line is still worth, in this day and age, $12.48 billion. So, Dan, you win this one with a $5 billion call.
Kline: [laughs] Tim, I will point out that we could both be spectacularly wrong and I could still be winning.
Beyers: That was a bad negotiation on my part, David. Bad negotiation.
Gardner: Well, and I would say it's totally understandable, though, this is a stock, by the way, that touched down at $8/share in April, it's around $20 now. So, it's more than doubled, like a lot of other stocks, in just about two months. Still, though, guys down 60% over the last five years, not a great stock.
Kline: Still at risk of bankruptcy, and that's -- look, the cruise industry was very, very profitable before this, but there's no guarantee that they come back in time to avoid a strategic Chapter 11. The banks don't want to own the cruise ships, so these companies will continue to operate but there could absolutely be a negative shareholder event for any of the cruise lines.
Gardner: Alright. Well, thank you, Dan, thank you, Tim. Guys, if I have my math right, I believe Dan is up 2:0 right now. Tim, this is going to stock that I think you might know pretty well, because it is one you've worked for more than 15 years with our Motley Fool Rule Breakers service, it's been around just about that long itself. This company has been one of our best performers in recent years, it's been held since 2011. But before we talk about the company, let me just ask, Tim, what are you driving these days?
Beyers: Oh, man! I try really hard not to drive, David. I mean, seriously, I use the RTD pass or I get out and walk, because I have, and this is true, a 2000, year 2000, Mercury Mountaineer. And for those who do not know, Mercury is a car brand that no longer exists. So, I have a ghost car. And you know what, it works for me, but I try really hard not to drive it, David.
Gardner: Yep, I totally understand, Tim. I got in my car the other day and I said to my wife, as we drove somewhere, "This is the second time I've driven in a month." Admittedly, she does some of the harder work. She does go out to Trader Joe's, socially distanced, etc. But, I mean, for the most part, I'm barely driving these days. But this stock continues to do pretty well. Dan, do you drive at all?
Kline: I drive a 2016 Nissan Sentra, and my office is one mile from the house, so. And as you can tell, I'm in a coworking space with very few people here, perfectly socially distanced. I live downtown, because I wanted to be able to walk everywhere. So, I walk as much as I can.
Gardner: That's great. Well, good for you both. It sounds like you're living a healthier life than I typically am, because I do drive a lot when people are driving. Well, this company has performed pretty well. Tesla, over the last five years is up about 300%. We have had a very low-cost basis for Rule Breaker members since 2011 when Elon Musk came and visited The Motley Fool offices and gave a free stump speech in front of our employees. At that time, he was saying, "We are the third most shorted stock on the Nasdaq," And I put one and one together. One of those being, wow! This company is the third most shorted stock on the Nasdaq, and the other one was Elon Musk is running the company. Elon Musk of PayPal fame, and so we made it a recommendation for the very next issue of Rule Breakers.
I'm not going to say where Tesla's stock is right now, because that might help my contestants, but let me just turn to Tim and say, Tim, your best shot, the market cap of Tesla?
Beyers: I have a better perspective on this one, but I'm not quite sure. And by the way, I have a bet with fellow Fool Austin Smith, and if Tesla gets to $20,000/share, then a Cybertruck is mine, and we will see if that actually ever happens. You know that I'm rooting for that. But I think today, David, if I'm in the ballpark it's about $205 billion in market cap.
Gardner: Dan, higher or lower.
Kline: I'm going to say lower.
Gardner: Dan, gets it right again. Great job. Although, Tim, very nice call. It always hurts me when somebody makes a good market cap call and in our new format, the other guy just gets to say "lower" and gets it right. [laughs] But, yes, indeed Tesla's market cap $191.07 billion. Yep, we're rocket out to two decimal places for this edition of the show. So, Dan, it was lower, not by that much.
Kline: I actually knew that one. I did, not a deep dive, but Jim Gillies and I did a show on Tesla. And that's one of the few that I actually, [laughs] of course, it could have changed dramatically today based on how everything is going, but I pretty confidently would have said about $190 billion.
Gardner: Tim, excellent call, good try. And I'm rooting for the $20,000, that sounds really good to me. The stock, by the way, at $982 as we record, it did touch over $1,000 in recent days.
Beyers: Just give me a 20-bagger, Elon, that's all I'm asking.
Gardner: [laughs] 20 more.
Beyers: A 20-bagger and a Cybertruck, that's all I need.
Gardner: Alright. Dan, let's stick with travel. So, are you a member of any frequent flyer clubs? I would have to imagine you're like a champion for maybe multiple brands.
Kline: Yeah, absolutely. So, Southwest has a great loyalty program, because it allows you, if you hit the status, to fly standby for free. So, when I come visit you guys at the office, I can book the last flight of the night, but maybe not take that flight, depending how my day goes, how my meetings go; so that's really valuable. Royal Caribbean matches your tier status, not your gambling, but how many trips you've taken, to MGM. And I sometimes get to stay at the MGM when I'm visiting the office. So, I'm very, very strategic about it. I'm also an American Express Platinum holder, because that gives you all sorts of -- it's an expensive card, but it gives you really good travel benefits. So, Matt Frankel and I, another Fool who appears on the podcast, we actually spend time in our personal lives strategizing this and figuring out how to maximize our rewards.
Gardner: That's tremendous. Dan, of the oligopoly of big dominant U.S. airline brands, do you have a favorite?
Kline: I really only fly Southwest unless I -- if I go to Vegas, sometimes I have to fly Frontier, which is pretty much like flying U.S. postal service, [laughs] it is a very unpleasant airline, but it is very cheap, so.
Gardner: Tim, what about you? Do you have a favorite among the big American airline brands?
Beyers: I'll say, yes, I'll say, Delta, but not because of, you know, the flying experience, but because of the way they treat their employees. I think Delta is a pretty well-structured airline, but if I have to pick one that I like to fly, boy! Do I like flying Southwest!
Gardner: Alright. So, a lot of commonality there, but in fact, the company that is company No. 4 on this market cap gameshow, Dan Kline, is Delta Airlines. Tim, just mentioned it. The ticker symbol for Delta Airlines is DAL. Dan, what is the market cap of Delta Airlines?
Kline: I'm going to say it's $58 billion.
Gardner: Tim, higher or lower?
Beyers: Lower.
Gardner: Lower by quite a bit. So, Dan, this is a company that a lot of people wonder, you know, will this whole industry be in business anymore? So, maybe that explains why the market cap is now down below $20 billion for Delta. Still pretty substantial, the stock is at $31 today right now, guys. It was as low as $17.5 in May, just weeks ago. A lot of stocks bottomed in March; Delta crashed hard in May.
Beyers: Yeah. They've had to raise a lot of capital too. I mean, they've had to leaseback some of their planes, they raised some bank debt. Delta is flying, but they are flying with some broken wings, I'd say.
Kline: Everybody is flying with broken wings right now, and really figuring out how to fly, how to distance people, how to make money. I know that I booked optimistic travel over the Summer, meaning, I booked all my Southwest flights that might happen as long as they let me do it, because they were so unbelievably, you know, inexpensive. So, if in January we are open in Alexandria, I booked that flight for, like, $110 roundtrip. And you're starting to see those prices come up as some, you know, normalcy, some people have to travel. They have family, they have business, whatever it is. You are starting to see prices come up, but you're going to see a supply constraint, especially if we have to fly distance on planes, less flights, less seats on those flights, that is going to force prices up, at least one essential routes, you know, business routes New York to LA, maybe not so much Alexandria to West Palm Beach.
Beyers: You never know, but I've got to say, boy! Do I want to see a service called an "optimistic flight." Doesn't that sound amazing? That sounds so fun, like, we're just all optimists on this plane. No matter what else is going on in the world, this is a happy time, this is a safe space.
Kline: One of the ways I've stayed sane during this, Tim, is to book travel, I full well knew wasn't going to happen, just so I could have it on my calendar and be, like, oh, in a month I'm going there. [laughs]
Beyers: That's good. Comfort travel.
Gardner: Alright. Speaking of good, Tim, good to see you ring one up. so, it's Dan-3, Tim-1. You're only as good as your last market cap, so let's proceed forward now. And back to Tim. Tim, you picked this stock in 2009. The date was January 21st when the buy report went out for this company to Rule Breakers members. And I hope a lot of them bought this company back then, but even if they didn't, even if they waited till 2011 or '13 or '15 or 2017, they're still really happy. In fact, over the last five years Salesforce has risen 158%. This is, of course, not a quiz show about how stocks have done, although it's always interesting to hear the backstories, but rather one about their market caps. But, Tim, I need to thank you again for just such a spectacular pick for Motley Fool Rule Breaker members. I remember back then, Tim, it was all about cloud computing.
Beyers: And it's still all that. This is the poster child, by the way, for cloud computing. Salesforce really is the poster stock for cloud computing, because they started back in '99. They were the company that said, you know what, you don't need to install software. In fact, their original slogan was, and you can still see this, Salesforce is one of those companies that has adorable mascots, this is true. They have, like, three of them. One of them is, like, the big plush Einstein, because they have the Einstein AI. And one of them is the "no software" logo. You could see the, you know, like, baseball-themed mascot walking around at a Salesforce trade show with white circle with the line between software, like, "no software," that was the Salesforce motto, and it's still out there, it's still going 20 years later.
Gardner: I'm a Salesforce fan, but I had to say, Tim, I didn't realize they had cute plushy logos, mascots. Alright. Well, Marc Benioff could probably -- I'm not sure he's as cute, but he's a pretty good logo for the company. The Founder and CEO has added so much value. And he's written a book recently, kind of, in the vein of conscious capitalism, and he's gotta be one of the top 10 living American CEOs right now. Tim, with all that said, what is the market cap of ticker symbol CRM, Salesforce?
Beyers: They've done extremely well, and we'll see if Dan punks me on this one, but I think I'm going to get reasonably close here, because, you know, they're very close to their primary rival, so I'm going to say $183.4 billion in market cap.
Gardner: Dan, higher or lower?
Kline: I'm going to say it's a tiny bit higher.
Gardner: Well, it is in fact a little lower. It's at $158.11 billion, for those scoring at home. And everybody is scoring at home. Part of the beauty of the market cap gameshow is you're playing along with us, and you've got your own score. So, yeah, I mean -- three to go -- so, yeah, the stock hit a low of $125 in March, it's at about $180 now. So, some bounce back, not nearly as dramatic as other companies have added a lot more value, [laughs] sometimes more than 100% in just two months, but yeah, this company, Tim, up 150% over the last five years. Winners win.
Beyers: Yeah, and you know what, I'm going to say, Dan, I apologize, I totally stole that from Aaron Bush. I went deliberately higher to see if I can do a head fake here. So, I apologize, but I don't really apologize.
Gardner: [laughs] Ah! the game outside the game, the metagame of practitioner Tim Beyers, thank you. Alright, Tim and Dan, that's halftime. We're through five stocks, five up and five more to go. I counted as Dan-3, Tim-2. Let's keep moving.
I suppose I should mention, of course, most of the good performers this week [laughs] are not stocks outside the universe of stocks that I pick in Stock Advisor and Rule Breakers, companies like Carnival Corp are not stock picks of mine, but in fact, they're there for Motley Fool Stock Advisor and Motley Fool Rule Breaker members. So, if you find yourself inspired by some of the performance that you've heard on this podcast or other past ones, or interested in The Motley Fool at large, I hope you'll come join us. In fact, specifically The Motley Fool Rule Breakers service, you can just join us with JoinRB.Fool.com. Hundreds of thousands already have, why not you too? Get started on a commitment, a lifetime commitment, to investing today.
Well, as I mentioned at the top of the show, Dan and Tim have distinguished themselves for the outstanding job they've done MC-ing, hosting, being analysts and experts on Motley Fool Live, which is Live.Fool.com, and that is our basically Fool TV, it's like The Motley Fool launched a TV channel during COVID. I think it'll probably continue to live on past COVID. It's been a wonderful development, and both of you have done such wonderful work.
Well, today, and again we're taping on Tuesday afternoon, as we always do, today I had the pleasure of interviewing a very successful CEO of a winning Rule Breaker company. Yep, that's something we do on Motley Fool Live too, sometimes we do CEO interviews. Dan, I want to ask you, have you signed any documents recently using e-signatures?
Kline: So, I was lucky enough to be on after you, and Dan Springer stuck around and I got to thank him. I have terrible handwriting; I can barely hold a pen. I am so thankful for DocuSign, besides the fact that it's just a brilliant timesaver. Yeah, when we bought our house, everything was on DocuSign, and it was actually something I asked our mortgage broker about beforehand. I was like, I don't want to sit there, can this be done digitally? It's a brilliant product, and the optionality for it, all the other things they could do. And I heard a few on that interview that I was like, oh, wow! They could do that, that makes a lot of sense. They solve a problem, and it's a problem that's a bigger problem right now. So, a really excellent company.
Gardner: I agree. And I don't want to tilt you guys too much with your psychology and thinking here, because you're in these soundproof booths without being able to ever see any market caps, as is always the case for the market cap gameshow, so I might be over influencing you by mistake, but I will say this, Dan, I was surprised how big the market cap of DocuSign is these days.
Kline: So, I hope I'm remembering this correctly, because I looked this one up earlier. [laughs] $29.8 billion.
Gardner: Tim, higher or lower?
Beyers: I think it's a little higher than that, David.
Gardner: Dan gets that one. And wow! Dan kind of deserves that one, because A. he watched a portion of Dan Springer, even talked to him over Motley Fool Live, and then also looked up the market cap [laughs] as well. And so, Dan, it is $29.52 billion, as I look at it anyway here Tuesday afternoon. So, $29.8 billion, pretty good, I would call it an Aaron Bush-like guess.
Kline: I will thank Emily Flippen for telling me that there was a decent chance you would ask about that one given the interview today. [laughs] So, Tim, I got a little inside help on that one.
Beyers: That's good. I like that. Hey, man! I took the Aaron Bush route last one, so you know what, I tip the cap.
Gardner: Yeah. And Emily is a very excellent player of the market cap gameshow. And part of it isn't just memorizing or knowing your market cap, it is the game outside the game that's outside the game. And that's maybe trying to figure out why I might ask a given company on a given episode. So, I would say that Emily helped. And good job, Dan. And thanks for joining in, that was a fun exchange, I saw that with Dan Springer as well.
Yeah, DocuSign has been a remarkable Rule Breaker. This is a company that only IPO'd in 2018. It's up 4X in value from there. But here's a fun fact, when it IPO'd, it was kind of quiet. I mean, it jumped those first few weeks, but +6 months later, post DocuSign IPO, ticker symbol DOCU, it was below where it had IPO'd at. So, it looked like kind of a sleepy to bad IPO, nine or so months afterward. And that was in 2018. Now, I think it's up 300%, just since its IPO, you can see it has been a spectacular winner.
Alright, well, company No. 7. Tim, I'm going to go to you, even though I think Dan may have more experience in this particular industry. But, Tim, let me just ask you, did you have a particular stuffed animal growing up that was your iconic stuffed animal?
Beyers: My iconic stuffed animal. No, my sister did, my sister had stuffed dogs. I don't think -- did I -- I don't think so. No, I had, like --
Gardner: ... not everybody does.
Beyers: Yeah. I had, like, the Tonka trucks and, well, I guess it depends. Do you count the large, like the, what were they, like, the 12-inch GI Joe figures? Do you remember those?
Gardner: Sure. Yes, we'll certainly count that.
Beyers: Okay. That's what I had.
Gardner: Alright. And you know, I would have even counted a plushy Marc Benioff as well, because we're all different and you never know --
Beyers: A plushy Marc Benioff, I would actually put that on my desk today, if I had a plushy Marc Benioff.
Gardner: [laughs] How about, did you have a go-to Halloween costume that you wore more than one Halloween, or not?
Beyers: No, no. But I will say, sometimes to the dismay of my neighbors, because they didn't know what I was doing. I used to wear my belled Fool cap out on Halloween, taking my kids around. They're like, who is this person? [laughs] And I did that multiple times, multiple Halloweens, David. So, I have done that.
Gardner: You know I love it. And before I ask Tim about this company's market cap, Dan, what's your favorite toy of all time?
Kline: Oh, that's a tough one. It's going to be LEGOs. I think when I was a kid, first of all, LEGOs are now, everything is something, you can't just get -- and they sell some just LEGOs, but that was the dominant thing. So, I would build elaborate sports arenas and have to make excuses of why the astronauts were playing against the, you know, the knights, because I didn't have enough sports figures. I think there's a level, Tim, I had the 12-inch GI Joe and he was friends with Batman and Evel Knievel, because that's who I had. And all lived in the Batcave, of course, because where -- or the Death Star. Those were the only two places I had where the characters could live.
Gardner: Well, the company in question. Some of the brands that we've mentioned are relevant to this company. And, of course, this company, Hasbro, has many, many brands, including games like Monopoly. And I'm certainly a board gamer. Monopoly, not my favorite game, but certainly an iconic game. Hasbro hasn't been a great stock in the last several years, I'll just hint-hint to both my contestants and all of my players at home. It's actually 0% return over the last five years. It's where it was five years ago, there's been some volatility, it's had some excitement, but taken all-in-all, even though it's been a great long-term performer for Motley Fool Stock Advisor, we're talking long, long term here, it's fair to start asking what have you done for me lately, Hasbro? Tim, what is the market cap of Hasbro?
Beyers: I think, David, and I'm -- yeah, this is a tough one for me, but I'm going to say $8.3 billion, I don't think it's that big.
Gardner: Alright, Dan, higher or lower?
Kline: I'm going to go lower.
Gardner: The correct answer is $9.90 billion. Those cheering for Tim and wanting some drama at the end will be happy to note, had Dan won that, it would have been 5:2, Tim would have been painted into a corner at that point, but nope, it's 4:3. Yep, Hasbro, guys, $9.9 billion. Stock, by the way, touched as low as $41 in March, it's $77.5 today. So, it's been a raging market crusher, if you're just looking over the last three months. Dan, I know you have some background in this industry, could you give us your CV in toys?
Kline: Yeah, it's very strange, because I got this job with no experience, but I was the General Manager of a gigantic, a 55,000 square foot toy store, 10,000 square foot model train, every model available, plus thousands that weren't. And so, I was buying toys. And it was one of those things where I just connected with the owner, he needed someone to run his business and it made sense, and it was an -- it's helped me so much as an investor, because I understand how retail works because I did it, and margin. And something, like, you look at a toy store and say, oh, wow! They sell a ton of LEGO. Well, there's no margin in LEGO, it's much worse than all of the rest. Hasbro, we didn't sell Hasbro, partly because we sold all the cool games that were fun to play. But Hasbro had a $2,500 reorder point. So, you're out of one game, you have to place a $2,500 order, that's a difficult position to be in. I used to drive to Target and buy up Candyland and Chutes and Ladders, because people expected us to have it and it wasn't worth explaining why we didn't get it. So, when it was on sale, we would mark it up zero, and just have it as a convenience. So, I spent a fond two years in the toy business.
Gardner: Wow! That is amazing. I've heard you talk about that on Industry Focus podcast, Dan, it's always fun to hear, again, about how you got the job just because you -- the guy knew you and he trusted you and you didn't have a lot of experience and all of a sudden you had a lot of responsibility.
Kline: I had been running a factory making steel planks and scaffolding and renting scaff- -- which is my family business, after largely a career as a journalist. So, a couple of weird detours in my employment history.
Gardner: Amazing. Well, I'm sorry that you didn't get credit for Hasbro, but we did kind of need Tim to pick it up, and he is. It's Dan-4, Tim-3. We've got three stocks left. Guys, I've made a real point of recently introducing non-David Gardner Supernova universe stocks into this game, ever since Aaron Bush kind of broke the game by memorizing seemingly all +225 market caps of all the companies I have in my active recommendation universe. So, I've been doing that throughout this episode, Dunkin' Donuts is not a recommendation of ours, nor is Carnival Corp, fortunately. Nor is Delta Airlines. They've all been kind of dogs, frankly. This next company hasn't been great either, it's the last for this market cap game show that is not a Motley Fool recommendation.
Dan, quick word association. I'm going to say a word, you're going to say the first one to three things back. Here's the word, "banks."
Kline: Blah!
Gardner: [laughs] Yeah, it's understandable, especially in an age where we don't really go down to our local branches anymore. It used to be kind of a human connection. I remember my parents cashing in a salary check every Friday or this kind of thing. And it was a regular thing as a little kid for me and for Tom to go down to the bank with mom or dad. We're not doing that anymore. And then there are ATM fees and then there's big mega mergers and "blah!" is the way a lot of us probably feel.
Kline: I know the barista at my local Capital One where there's a Peet's Coffee but I don't know a single person who works in the bank, because when I needed something from them, I needed a certified check, they said, oh, no, you have Capital One online account, you have to call. I'm like, but I'm right here, I can't -- no, they were very insistent upon it. That seems to be like pretty bad customer service, which is, I don't know, fairly typical for the industry.
Gardner: Wow! Tim, do you like your bank?
Beyers: I like my regional bank. I have FirstBank of Colorado and I got to say, they've been pretty good. I think there's a big difference, maybe it's just me, it might be a little bit of homespun feeling here, but I think there's a huge difference between a regional bank and a giant bank. So, I'm a fan of FirstBank of Colorado, but it's a small bank, it's a regional bank.
Kline: I agree completely. When I lived in Connecticut, we went to Peoples Bank, which is a regional bank, and I knew the tellers, I knew the bankers. If I had a problem there was someone you could call. Here, I'm a Wells Fargo customer with my wife, and the actual people in the bank. It's like everyone's like you're onto your grandma, it's very friendly, but the overall corporate environment, it's still just a bank. Like, I'd like to see some differentiated service, somebody become the T-Mobile of banking and really try to disrupt and just do it better.
Beyers: And I will say, like, you know, donuts on Saturday at FirstBank, when you come to Colorado, that's a tradition. I mean, better than going to Dunkin' Donuts, David, that's what I'll say, and free.
Gardner: Wow! Bank donuts. I've never heard of such a thing. Brilliant! Alright, well, we're turning back to Dan now. And, Dan, in this case, we're going to be talking about the third largest bank in the U.S., quick trivia question for our listeners and make your guess, and if you guessed Citigroup, you're right. The ticker symbol is just a single letter, yep, it's one of those 26 or so companies. The ticker symbol is C for Citigroup. This is a company, lot of us will remember, years ago it merged with Travelers, and that's how it first kind of blew up, mega merger. Citibank, Citigroup with Travelers and then it later spun Travelers off. Citibank these days -- well, I'm not going to say the market cap because, Dan, you're about to give your best guess. Dan, what is the market cap of Citi?
Kline: $163 billion.
Gardner: Tim, higher or lower?
Beyers: Geez! That's really specific. I'm going to say, I'm going to go against the grain here, my instinct is to say slightly higher, I'm going to say slightly lower.
Gardner: And it is lower. Tim, good job, 4:4. The market cap of Citigroup is $102.15 billion. And I have to admit, I thought that was low. Again, I never reveal how ignorant I would be if I were playing this game. But occasionally I hint at it. And in this case, I would have thought that Citi was bigger, just feels like a bigger world out there. But, yeah, guys, Salesforce is 50% bigger than Citi, even though it started a little bit later measured by the calendar.
Beyers: It's a cloud world and the banks are just living in it, David, that's what it is. It's a cloud world and the banks are just living in it.
Kline: And it's interesting, because I base that on having a sense of where Bank of America was, and I'm actually surprised it's that much different than where they are.
Gardner: Alright. Well now, we leave the rather unfriendly territory of companies I don't know that well, that I'm throwing in just to keep everybody, especially Aaron Bush honest, and we return back to our home stadium and some of our favorite companies. And this particular company, Tim, I named as one of my Five Stocks For America last week. So, every 10 episodes or so of Rule Breaker Investing, I pick a Five-Stock Sampler. And last week, for those who haven't listened, you can listen in again, I hope these stocks will continue to do well. They're beating the market after the first week, but Five Stocks For America, companies that really are emblematic of one or more, what I think of as American core values.
But in the case of this particular company, its mascot, since this is a show of mascots, was in fact one of the sons of liberty. And so, since I think of liberty as one of America's core values, ticker symbol SAM, Sam Adams, not only just a big beer brand, also the ticker symbol for the Boston Beer Company, which is Jim Cook's founded company and the official name of the corporate parent. Tim, do you like beer?
Beyers: I don't drink beer anymore, is that -- this is terrible, because I should know this. And in fact, I'll just say, back, you know, years ago, David, when you had us work on Odyssey 1, and this is one that longtime Fool and a friend of ours, Matt Argersinger, was just going to the mat on in Odyssey 1, and man! it was a great stock inside of Supernova Odyssey 1, so I should know this better. Matt, sorry.
Gardner: And, Matt, was working on our Stock Advisor team. In fact, it was May 2010, when we picked Boston Beer Company. Matt pounding the table back then for it, and it has been a 9-bagger for members in the now 10 years, because it was May 2010; 10 years later a 9-bagger. So, a spectacular winner for a company that is arguably on the one hand at the forefront of the craft brew industry and yet being completely undermined by all kinds of new craft beers and making SAM look like a big corporate beer in its own way, Samuel Adams. But, Dan, are you a beer fan in any way, shape or form?
Kline: I'm a very mild beer fan, but the beers that I've been most interested in are some of the special Sam Adams beers. I'm from the Boston area. And they really pioneered the very limited-edition stouts and were very expensive. That I found very interesting.
Gardner: So, I sort of feel like we're in Dan's backyard with this one, Tim, but I am asking you, what is the market cap of the Boston Beer Company, ticker symbol SAM?
Beyers: So, it's been a massive winner, like, you point out, David, but I don't think it's been much of a winner over the past year-and-a-half to two years, but I'm not entirely sure about that. I'm going to make a pretty wild guess here and say $27.1 billion.
Gardner: Dan, higher or lower?
Kline: Lower.
Gardner: Indeed, it is quite a bit lower. And anytime that happens, Tim, it always makes me suggest back to the analysts, have you thought about buying the stock maybe? Because Boston Beer's market cap is $6.65 billion. And so, for anybody who was thinking it was +$20 billion, that means, in your mind, it could be a 3-bagger from here, Tim.
Beyers: It could be, it could be. Yep, I need to give it another look here. That's a good pull though, it's interesting company.
Kline: It's a tough space now. Basically, they created a blueprint that all these upstart companies are following and that becomes very -- it's very tricky to compete.
Gardner: I do think that's true, Dan, but we were, as a team, on Stock Advisor, maybe three or four years ago, saying that very thing, saying you know, wow! This is so competitive these days, just to get shelf space. And these guys are kind of a tweener, they're not as big, not close as Budweiser, but they're not cool anymore like your favorite local Swill or whatever it is, but indeed, it's really remarkable, before we go to stock ten here, guys, to think back on that being a 9-bagger and yet it's still just a $6.7 billion company. So, it remains rather small as big a performer as it's been on the stock market. So, thanks again to Matt Argersinger.
And by my reckoning then, Dan, I believe you're winning 5:4.
Kline: I'm just glad I did not humiliate myself, so, yes, it's 5:4. The worst I can do is tie.
Gardner: Neither one of you humiliated yourselves, you were both equal to it. And down the stretch we come. So, turning now to you, Dan. Dan, how do you keep yourself entertained during these indoor days that we're spending every single day it seems?
Kline: Well, I'm lucky that I live someplace where there is a lot of outdoors, so I am spending time walking. I haven't been to the beach though, we do have a very wide, open beach, so it would be pretty safe. I've been to the pool, it's very empty, but I live in a very old building, so most of those people are staying at home. But that said, I am a big Netflix guy, I watch -- well, not just Netflix, I watch a lot of streaming. I'm catching up on The Flash right now. I tend to spend such a dark and dour day with all the news that's going on, it's much more escapist entertainment than I would normally watch. And I miss sports. [laughs] So, I'm really having a hard time with there being no Celtics game, no Rangers games, no Red Sox games. So, you know, lots of streaming and a little bit of old school television. My wife and I have a few things we watch together.
Gardner: Nice. And, Tim, are you streaming anything these days?
Beyers: I've been watching a lot of YouTube; I've been watching a lot of documentaries. And in fact, I love that Netflix puts a lot of its documentaries on YouTube, the new Ava DuVernay documentary 13th is available on YouTube. Well worth the watch. So, yeah, a lot of YouTube, a lot of documentaries. And I listen to a lot of podcasts.
Gardner: And I understand that as well. In my own case, I'm listening to fewer podcasts because it was such a "when I'm driving" thing, and I'm never driving these days. So, I haven't carved out as much time for podcasts, but, boy! I've been streaming too. And since we're all just making little recommendations, I'll mention, on Netflix, the documentary Lenox Hill, the docuseries just out last week or so. Really great. Looking at that New York City hospital true stories of the doctors that are working there. And this is all pre-COVID. So, as you might imagine, and as I would expect, they are painted as very human and very heroic in terms of what they're doing, and it's not even 2020 that you're watching. So, anyway, high recommendation for me on Lenox Hill.
Now, there is one device that many people can stream many different services off of. It's not just about Netflix or YouTube, although, yes. Yes, certainly Roku devices do stream those. And it seems like everybody's got their streaming channel these days. I was adding NBC one just to watch old Saturday Night Live episodes on and then there's the CBS one with Star Trek that I haven't gotten around to yet. And oh, my golly! There are a lot out there. Well, I know you guys both know Roku. So many of our listeners have Rokus and I hope many of our listeners have Roku stock, ticker symbol ROKU.
Turning now to you, Dan, you're up 5:4. What is the market cap of Roku, Inc.?
Kline: Oh! I love the product, but I don't study the company. I'm going to say $28.2 billion.
Gardner: Tim, higher or lower?
Beyers: I think that it's lower, so I'm going to say lower.
Gardner: And what a great ending. It is lower. And so, gentlemen, we have a tie. And one of the things about the market cap gameshows, there are no tiebreakers, we don't have like, if they tie, then you look back and see who was off the most or whatever a good tiebreaker rule might be, we don't have that. We just celebrated the performance, and you guys each brought it with five companies. Let me double underline it, the market cap for Roku is $12.84 billion. Dan, Tim, do you guys have Rokus? Dan, first.
Kline: I have one of everything, but more Rokus than anything else. I also have the new TiVo device which has Roku embedded, which is not perfect but really getting there to make ease of discovery and not having to switch between apps. It's not all there yet, but you can just see, "Hey, I want to watch this show, where do I have that show?" And it'll show you, you can buy it on Amazon, you could watch it for free on Netflix. A really interesting developing product.
And I'll mention, I had the CEO of TiVo on Fool Live, and the first question I asked him, I cleared this with him, was, "Wait! there's still a TiVo?" And absolutely, [laughs] there is, and they're making a really interesting consumer product.
Gardner: That's really interesting. Tim, what about you?
Beyers: I do not have a Roku. We've had an Apple TV in the past, but I have to say. The more that I investigate this company and the products, I get way more interested in it. And doing that interview of the TiVo CEO with Dan, I have to say, that sort of got me really interested too, because they are looking pretty broadly. It's very fascinating to see the number of companies that are rolling up more of our streaming choices. I think Roku does this better than anybody. So, I'm really interested in it, but don't have one yet.
Kline: Yeah, I'll also point out that Google Chromecast is part of that TiVo device. And it works a lot better than Google Chromecast, because I don't have to use my phone as the remote.
Gardner: Well that was fun. 12 market cap game shows now part of history for this podcast. And thanks again to Tim and to Dan for being good sports, and also pretty savvy. I'm always impressed by anybody who gets a market cap pretty accurately, but I'm even more impressed by the courage that it takes to go on, and in front of America, in front of the world, since we have a lot of international listeners, show your ignorance often about how far off you might be for a company's market cap. And especially thinking again of Boston Beer Company, when I hear someone smart like Tim say, he thinks it's worth over $20 billion and it's worth less than $7 billion, to me that always perks me up a little bit and says, maybe I should look at that stock, maybe I should put that on my watchlist.
And I remember, back in the day, the reason we've always used at Etsy as our example was because Matt Argersinger kept doing that with Etsy. And if you bought and held Etsy every single time that blew it and overestimated its market cap, you've made a lot of money.
Alright. Well, from market caps as low as Dunkin', which was our lowest this week, $5.5 billion, up to as large as, yep, the largest market cap this week, bigger than Salesforce, bigger than Citigroup, was Tesla. So, from Dunkin' to Tesla and everything in between, thanks again for joining me this week.
We've got our RBI podcast mailbag [email protected] next week, drop us a line. You can tweet us @RBIPodcast. In the meantime, keep your feet on the ground and keep reaching for the market cap.
