A fourfold return over nine years is not as difficult to accomplish as it sounds. It amounts to earning an average annualized return of about 16%. Buying solid companies with excellent growth prospects is one of the best ways to achieve above-average returns.
To give you some ideas, here are five stocks that I believe have a good chance of growing your money fourfold by 2030.
Upwork (UPWK -2.32%) is the world's largest work marketplace, where businesses of all sizes come to find freelancers and independent professionals to fill job openings. It's a relatively small business, with analysts expecting Upwork to report $497 million in revenue for 2021, but management estimates its addressable market at a massive $1.3 trillion, and Upwork has already gained the trust of some of the largest businesses in the world.
About half of the Fortune 500 are current clients, but the growing adoption of remote workers is one tailwind that is still in the early innings of playing out. Gartner expects 51% of all knowledge workers worldwide to be working remotely this year, up from 27% in 2019. In the third quarter, Upwork reported revenue growth of 32% over the year-ago quarter, and it's constantly adding new services to win more business from its growing list of clients.
Growth in active clients accelerated over the last year, while spending per client also continues to grow, up 12% in the last quarter, which is consistent with the pre-pandemic trend. With strong near-term momentum and a long runway of growth ahead, this is an early-stage growth stock serving a mission-critical need that could quadruple your investment.
The idea of AirBedandBreakfast.com started in 2007 after founders Brian Chesky and Joe Gebbia decided to invite guests attending a local design conference in San Francisco to rent air beds at their apartment, as every hotel was sold out. Airbnb (ABNB -2.78%) started with a simple idea and has grown into a large business. In the third quarter, total nights and experiences booked on the platform reached 79.7 million, which generated $11.9 billion in gross booking value.
Airbnb is a very profitable business offering high-return potential. With travel demand returning this year, Airbnb generated a record profit of $834 million on revenue of $2.2 billion last quarter. Since revenue is generated from fees charged to hosts listing their properties, Airbnb doesn't have the typical maintenance spending required by big hotel chains. With a massive long-term growth opportunity in the travel industry, I believe Airbnb could deliver 4x returns to your portfolio by 2030.
CarMax (KMX 0.08%) has been a leader in the used auto market for many years. Its no-hassle sales approach has won the trust of customers, which has ultimately driven fairly steady retail sales growth and returns for shareholders. Over the last 10 years, CarMax stock delivered a return of 431%, and there are good reasons to believe it will repeat that performance.
In calendar 2020, CarMax commanded approximately 3.5% of the market for vehicles less than 10 years old. However, CarMax believes it can capture more than 5% market share in the next five years. Its recent investments in online, credit, financing, and delivery services to bolster its omnichannel approach has grown, with online sales making up 9% of total sales last quarter, and its extensive data on used-car sales position CarMax as a tough competitor and should pay off in the long run for investors.
Another reason investors can expect 4x returns from CarMax is valuation. You can currently buy the stock at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.9 times this year's consensus earnings estimate. That's right in line with the stock's average P/E range over the last 10 years. At this valuation level, CarMax should be a rewarding investment through the end of the decade.
Several top media companies have seen the writing on the wall and have jumped on the streaming train lately, but Netflix (NFLX 1.07%) continues to remain king of the hill with its broad selection of content and a growing base of 213 million subscribers.
Netflix has been at the streaming game longer than any other and that first-mover advantage shows in the little things, such as its relatively easy-to-use app and its ubiquity across so many devices and third-party platforms.
The stock's valuation has always looked expensive, but management's recent focus on improving operating margin and free cash flow doesn't make the stock look so expensive anymore. Analysts expect Netflix to nearly double its earnings per share over the next few years, and that should support a growing share price.
At a market cap of $1.8 trillion, it's difficult to imagine how Amazon (AMZN -2.02%) could still offer a fourfold return on your investment, but I believe it can, which is why Amazon remains my largest holding.
Despite a recent slowdown in growth, Amazon Prime is still the 800-pound gorilla in e-commerce, and this advantage is starting to lead to growing revenue in more lucrative areas. These include third-party seller fees, advertising, and cloud services, which are contributing to a growing percentage of Amazon's top line. Non-retail categories comprised 45% of total revenue in 2020.
Non-retail growth is also great for Amazon's cash-generating ability. Its trailing-12-month cash from operations more than tripled over the last five years to $54 billion, yet the stock still trades at a price-to-cash from operations ratio of 33 -- consistent with the last 10-year trading range. As long as management continues to allocate this cash flow to high-return initiatives -- and it should, given the trillions of dollars that make up the global retail industry -- Amazon is very capable of delivering a 400% return by 2030.