Astute students of the market probably know growth stocks have outpaced value stocks for the better part of the past 14 years. Although the overused axiom explains that "past performance is no guarantee of future results," this persistent outperformance certainly bolsters the bullish case for growth-oriented names.
However, don't be too shocked if value stocks have their proverbial day in the sun beginning in 2023.
One of the key reasons growth stocks have done so well for over a decade is the ultra-low interest rates seen during this period. With the federal funds rate now at 15-year highs and average lending rates subsequently similarly higher though, the cost of capital is now skyrocketing for these companies.
Conversely, the companies behind most value stocks are accustomed to costlier debt. They should remain about as profitable as they've been in other environments, possibly making them the more desirable names for the foreseeable future.
With that as the backdrop, here's a rundown of three value names you may want to add to your portfolio before 2022 ends and 2023 begins.
1. Ford Motor Company
Ford Motor Company (F +0.41%) bumped into the same demand and logistics headwind other companies did during the pandemic. As a reminder, though, the iconic carmaker has been struggling in earnest for years. The automobile business is changing, but Ford wasn't keeping up with these changes initially.
However, the stock's lack of net forward progress in the last 20 years prices in too little progress and much doubt. Shares are presently priced at less than seven times 2023's projected per-share earnings, while the stock's current dividend yield of 5.3% is well above the market-wide average. That's nuts, particularly for a company expected to see at least a bit of sales growth in the year ahead.
NYSE: F
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What's really being overlooked is how well Ford is preparing for its future.
Although the carmaker just booked a $2.7 billion charge to account for losses linked to its autonomous driving technology development partnership with Argo, it's not abandoning the technology. Instead, it's just better to focus on its core competencies by punting this R&D work to better-equipped third parties. Its core competencies are, of course, designing and building automobiles and, increasingly, electric vehicles.
To this end, the company can't keep up with demand for its all-electric Mach-E Mustang, prompting Ford to plan on nearly doubling 2022's total EV production in 2023. And, despite some criticisms of its all-electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck, the automaker intends to ramp up this vehicle's output in an effort to satisfy demand.
Given the U.S. Energy Information Administration's expectation that the number of electric vehicles traveling the world's roads will swell from around 10 million now to more than 670 million by 2050, Ford Motor Company is most definitely positioning itself for good, sustainable growth.
2. AbbVie
Pharmaceutical outfit AbbVie (ABBV 0.19%) makes several different drugs. Its breadwinner, though, is Humira. The arthritis and Crohn's disease treatment accounts for roughly half the company's revenue.
And that's an understandable worry for some investors.
See, Humira is on the verge of losing the crux of its patent protection. Biosimilar versions of the drug will become available within the United States in 2023, and as time marches on, more protection will expire. Humira's revenue could peak in the coming year -- or at least peak soon -- if it hasn't already.
This impending revenue headwind is arguably the biggest reason AbbVie shares have underperformed most of their pharma peers in recent years and the subsequent reason the stock's priced modestly at 14 times 2023's likely earnings.
NYSE: ABBV
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The relative disinterest, however, ignores the fact that AbbVie's got an answer for the looming end of Humira's strength.
While no single drug can replace Humira, the drugmaker's got several in the works that could collectively do the job. All told, 12 late-stage oncology and immunology drug trials are now underway, looking at nine different therapies that have already been approved for other indications.
Meanwhile, immunology drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq are off to a great start after launching in 2019, with more approved uses being tried -- and approved -- on a regular basis. Cancer-fighting Imbruvica is nearing annual sales of $5 billion, en route to what could be peak annual net sales of around $7 billion (or more) by the end of this decade.
And let's not forget AbbVie's recent acquisitions of Syndesi Therapeutics and DJS Antibodies, as well as 2020's deal to buy Allergan, bringing several new neurosciences, immunology, and hematology intellectual properties into AbbVie's portfolio.
The point is, AbbVie is better positioned for a post-Humira future than many investors may recognize.
3. Citigroup
Finally, add megabank Citigroup (C +2.21%) to your list of value stocks to step into before 2022 ends and 2023 begins.
It feels like a less-than-ideal time to own bank stocks. Not only does an economic headwind mean less demand for loans and investment-related services, but it can also mean borrowers increasingly struggle to make loan payments. The surge in mortgage loans seen in 2021 could readily translate into sizable loan losses going forward.
However, there are two factors not being considered here if this stock's near-halving since its mid-2021 peak is any indication.
NYSE: C
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The first of these factors is higher interest rates.
While the Mortgage Bankers Association reports applications for home purchases are now running about one-third lower than where they were just a year earlier, Citigroup's third-quarter net interest income of $12.5 billion was up 5% from Q2's figure, and up 18% year over year. It's the upside of several recent hikes of the federal funds rate, which first started ratcheting higher in March 2022 to reach its highest level this month since 2008. Higher interest rates make lending a more profitable venture on the loans still being made (and, of course, variable rate loans).
There's likely to be much more of the same where that came from, too. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan recently commented that Q4's net interest income could grow by $1 billion thanks to higher rates. Citigroup CFO Mark Mason has suggested a figure closer to a $2 billion increase is possible. Oh, and interest rates are likely to keep rising through 2023.
The other factor beckoning long-term investors back to Citigroup shares is its now-above-average dividend. The recent weakness translates into a paltry forward-looking price/earnings ratio of only 6.1 and has inflated the stock's (very reliable) dividend yield to 4.5% to boot. That's solid, even if your plan is to reinvest dividends in more shares of the stock paying them.
