In the last five years, the S&P 500 has climbed 80% (as of Feb. 16), a figure that excludes dividends. That's a respectable gain that investors can be encouraged by -- but not all businesses have fared this well.
Look at Detroit automaker Ford (F -2.23%). Its shares have climbed by just 44% since February 2019. If we zoom out even further and look at the last 10 years, investors actually lost money.
As we set our sights on the next five years, there's a chance that this auto stock could double, producing an annualized return of roughly 15%. But that's only if one very important thing happens.
Pressing the gas on growth
Ford had a strong year in 2023, as sales were up 11%. This was after revenue jumped 16% in 2022. These impressive double-digit gains were out of the ordinary, though, thanks to higher vehicle pricing and volumes.
In the previous five years, from 2016 to 2021, sales decreased at a compound annual rate of 2%. I think this long-running figure better indicates the situation at Ford and in the auto industry more broadly. Fast growth should not be expected.
Therefore, the only way the stock can double in the next five years is if the company can not only supercharge its top-line gains, but also register annualized earnings-per-share (EPS) growth of 15% between 2023 and 2028. If the bottom line doubles in five years and the valuation remains constant, investors will be pleased.
Ford's growth strategy, called "Ford+," is centered on improving the customer value proposition, operating with disciplined capital allocation, and driving outsized profit gains. The company is investing behind its legacy gas and hybrid cars, new electric vehicles, and commercial offerings.
Management recently called out cost cuts of $2 billion that will result in similar expenses this year as in 2023. This gives the leadership team confidence that 2024 will see adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of $10 billion to $12 billion, better than what it produced in 2023.
In the last five years, diluted EPS climbed 3.3% per year, which I think helps to explain the poor performance of the shares. Between 2023 and 2026, though, Wall Street consensus analyst estimates call for EPS to rise 21.6% annually, but these forecasts are often wildly inaccurate. Analysts predicted EPS would be $1.87 in 2023, but the actual figure came in at $1.08.
NYSE: F
Key Data Points
Pumping the brakes on expectations
Based on Ford's track record, I'm not optimistic that 15% EPS growth per year will happen. The global auto industry is extremely mature, and even though EVs are the promise of the future, they aren't suddenly going to encourage consumers to go out and buy new cars more frequently. Industry passenger-car sales globally increased by just 12% in total between 2010 and 2022, despite tremendous innovation and a low-interest-rate environment.
Ford will also continue to go up against factors that are outside of its control. In the past couple of years, there have been higher interest rates in the U.S., as well as worldwide supply chain issues. Both of these can have a profound impact on Ford's success.
Plus, there are just some realities that Ford can't escape. It operates in a very capital-intensive industry, and changes in commodity and labor costs are a big factor. Competition remains fierce, challenging Ford's ability to stand out among dominant international rivals. Add these unsavory ingredients to consistent single-digit profit margins that haven't shown the ability to expand, and it's easy to be pessimistic.
Ford might be trading at a cheap price-to-earnings ratio of 11.4 right now, but investors should think twice before buying the stock. Unless growth seriously picks up -- something I'm not too confident will happen -- shareholders probably won't be happy five years from now.
