Something curious is happening with Intuitive Machines (LUNR 9.09%) stock, the tiny lunar exploration company that last year landed a U.S. spacecraft on the moon for the first time in over 50 years.
Yesterday, Bank of America analyst Ronald Epstein lowered his price target on Intuitive stock from $16 to $10.50, below where the stock was trading, triggering an "underperform" rating. And yet, Intuitive Machines stock went up, not down, on the news (rising 1.2%).
And today, it's going up even more.
Image source: Getty Images.
What BofA says about Intuitive Machines stock
Intuitive Machines stock gained a healthy 5.1% through 10:40 a.m. ET. But while investors are surely happy to see Intuitive continue to defy gravity, maybe they shouldn't get used to it.
As Epstein explains, in a note covered by The Fly, Intuitive stock has done well this year after surprising investors with a report of positive free cash flow achieved in Q1 -- $13.3 million generated in the quarter. At the same time, however, management warned that cash receipt lumpiness could return in Q2.
And I suspect "cash receipt lumpiness" translates as "negative free cash flow."
Is Intuitive Machines stock a buy?
This shouldn't be a surprise.
Analysts have long forecast it would take Intuitive until at least 2027 to reach sustained profitability as calculated according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), and 2028 to begin generating consistently positive FCF. Q2 2025 was almost certainly an aberration, albeit a happy one, and investors will still need patience with this stock.
That said, I believe patience will be rewarded. Between the company's series of NASA contracts to land spacecraft on the moon, its Near Space Network communications contract, and now a new business building Earth reentry vehicles for semiconductor and space pharmaceutical customers, Intuitive's future could be out of this world.
