Both Bitcoin (BTC 0.44%) and XRP (XRP -2.25%) are on the verge of setting new all-time highs. Both have seen their prices rally over the summer. And both have seen analysts ratchet up their future price targets.
So, which one is the better buy in August? Let's take a closer look at the data.
Bitcoin's history of awful Augusts
August is one of the worst months of the year for Bitcoin. Last year, for example, Bitcoin fell 9% in August. In 2023, Bitcoin fell 11% in August. And, in 2022, Bitcoin fell 14%.
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In fact, the average return for Bitcoin in August during its entire lifetime is slightly negative (-0.23%). The median return in August is even more concerning: negative 8%. So, if history is any guide, Bitcoin might backtrack in August.
Admittedly, Bitcoin has only been around for 16 years, so the statistical sample is quite small. But, based on the data available, Bitcoin investors might want to brace themselves for a difficult month ahead. Simply put, the long-term trend is for Bitcoin to have a jubilant July, and then follow it up with an awful August.
Has XRP decoupled from Bitcoin?
The big question, of course, is whether XRP can decouple from Bitcoin. In other words, can XRP zig when Bitcoin zags?
A potential decoupling was the narrative for much of the summer, when XRP was soaring. During that time period, Bitcoin seemed to be stalled. By mid-July, XRP was fast approaching a new all-time high around $4, while Bitcoin was still stuck at less than $120,000.
That simply was not supposed to happen. Bitcoin traditionally leads the market higher or lower, and other cryptocurrencies such as XRP go along for the ride. For example, according to DeFiLlama, the 12-month correlation between Bitcoin and XRP is a very high 0.88. That means the two cryptocurrencies typically move up and down at roughly the same pace.
If Bitcoin is going to decline in price in August, then XRP will need to decouple. Without a decoupling, XRP will likely also decline in value. And that means neither Bitcoin nor XRP might be worth buying in August.
But what about the long haul?
Of course, solely focusing on price activity during a single month (in this case, August) doesn't make sense if you have a long-term, buy-and-hold investment approach. The more appropriate time horizon is three, five, or even 10 years out.
And that's where Bitcoin really shines. The wave of institutional adoption of Bitcoin is simply off the charts this year. Bitcoin treasury companies are buying Bitcoin. Sovereign governments are buying Bitcoin. And, thanks to a new executive order from President Donald Trump, retirement funds could soon be buying Bitcoin.
Yes, XRP has seen its share of institutional adoption as well. But the biggest XRP treasury companies can't compare to the biggest Bitcoin treasury companies. And nobody is likely adding XRP to their retirement accounts, or making it a centerpiece of their overall investment strategy. Bitcoin feels much more strategic, while XRP feels much more speculative.
I'm focused on the long-term, stable sources of demand. This is where Bitcoin has a clear edge over XRP. Given this stable demand, the price of Bitcoin is likely to trend up over the long haul. The same cannot be said for XRP.
Keep your focus on the long-term outlook
If given a choice between XRP and Bitcoin in August, the better buy is Bitcoin. The long-term outlook is simply more favorable for Bitcoin, and it's very easy to see the growth in institutional adoption.
But just be aware: The price of Bitcoin might go down in August. So be prepared to buy on the dip once again.
