Year to date, XRP (XRP 0.16%) is up a robust 54%, making it the top-performing major cryptocurrency. Even Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), up 29%, and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), up 41%, are having a difficult time keeping up with XRP.
Obviously, XRP has a lot of momentum right now. But does it have enough momentum to hit $5 from its current price of $3.20? Doing so would require XRP to soar another 56% by the end of the year. Let's see if the math checks out.
What do online prediction markets say?
One clue comes from online prediction markets, where people are trading each day, based on where they think the price of XRP is heading this year. Right now, on the Kalshi prediction market, traders think XRP has a 70% chance of hitting $4 this year and a 29% chance of hitting $5.
Those are remarkably high odds, given that the all-time high for XRP is just $3.84. In more than a decade, XRP has never traded higher than $4. Yet, traders are saying that it's basically a slam dunk that XRP will be trading at all-time highs by the end of 2025.
What big catalysts does XRP have coming up?
To soar from $3.20 to $5, XRP will need at least one big catalyst. The one that everyone is talking about right now is the imminent launch of new spot XRP ETFs later this year. A handful of top investment firms have already submitted spot XRP ETF applications, and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is scheduled to render judgment on them by mid-October.
Thus, sometime over the next two months, there's a possibility that spot XRP ETFs will begin trading. According to Bloomberg, there's a 95% chance of SEC approval, now that the long-standing legal case involving Ripple (the company behind the XRP token) and the SEC has been resolved. Thanks to the pro-crypto approach of the Trump administration, everything seems to be breaking in XRP's favor right now.
Now that there's regulatory clarity around Ripple and XRP, the stage is set for the further buildout of the Ripple payment network that is powered by the XRP token. Over the past five years, growth in the U.S. slowed to a halt, as Ripple looked overseas for expansion opportunities. But, with the SEC case in its rearview mirror, it is now free to focus on new U.S. expansion opportunities.
Beware the outlandish XRP price forecasts
One remarkable fact about XRP is just how bullish the overall investor community has become. You might be surprised that some analysts are now predicting that XRP will 10x in value and hit a price of $30 by mid-2026, or that some analysts now think that XRP has an outside chance of hitting $100.
Image source: Getty Images.
While it's true that XRP has significant upside potential, it's best to take these outlandish XRP forecasts with a grain of salt. Historically, quite a bit of hype, buzz, and speculation has surrounded XRP, and little of it has actually come true.
For example, at the beginning of this year, there was tremendous buzz about XRP being added to a new strategic crypto reserve created by the U.S. government. This was supposed to send XRP to the moon. As it turns out, the U.S. government actually held very little XRP, and has no real plan to add more XRP in the future. According to online prediction markets, there's only a 9% chance that the U.S. government will designate XRP as a "strategic asset" and start accumulating it this year.
The same is true with other catalysts that were supposed to send XRP higher. There has been buzz about a possible IPO for Ripple. There were rumors that Ripple would acquire stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) for a paltry price of $5 billion. (The company is currently valued at $34 billion.) There was speculation that the Ripple payment network would somehow overtake SWIFT and become the top payment network in the world.
Should you buy XRP?
The good news is that XRP has several potential growth catalysts, and it really only needs one to send it higher. The most logical catalyst is the imminent launch of the new spot XRP ETFs. Assuming that this event has not already been priced in by crypto investors, it has the potential to send XRP much higher.
But just remember: As Bitcoin goes, so goes XRP. It's hard to see XRP soaring 56% in value to hit $5 if Bitcoin is also not soaring 56% in value. So keep your eyes on what's happening with the broader crypto market, and especially with Bitcoin.
