Rigetti Computing (RGTI 13.10%) has surged 1,820% over the past 12 months -- topping D-Wave Quantum's (QBTS 16.77%) 1,550% gain and IonQ's 505% (IONQ 11.58%). Yet, today's $5.3 billion market cap looks disconnected from a company posting just $1.8 million in quarterly revenue while losing nearly $40 million in the most recent quarter.
Investors are paying venture-style multiples for technology that still lacks commercial traction. Yet, the massive opportunity inherent in quantum computing could make this tech stock a steal -- even at these elevated levels. Let's dig deeper to find out whether this premium-laden growth stock is worth the price of admission.
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Technical breakthroughs mask commercial struggles
In August 2025, Rigetti's modular 36-qubit system -- four 9-qubit chiplets linked together -- achieved 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity, halving errors from its Ankaa-3 machine. A 100-plus qubit chiplet system is targeted by year-end. Think of it like building a supercomputer from many processors instead of one impossible monolith.
Rigetti's superconducting qubits operate at fractions of a degree above absolute zero. The company's two-qubit gates run in tens of nanoseconds, versus tens of microseconds for trapped-ion or neutral-atom systems -- roughly 100 to 1,000 times faster. Faster gates allow more operations within limited coherence times, though rival platforms often deliver higher fidelities and longer lifetimes.
On the financial front, second-quarter 2025 revenue fell to $1.8 million from $3.1 million a year ago, reflecting contract timing. Income comes from cloud access, custom algorithm work, and government research and development (R&D). Operating losses of $19.9 million in the most recent quarter underscore the capital-intensive nature of this nascent field.
In short, technical progress is ramping while revenues remain minimal.
Government validation provides crucial backing
DARPA tapped Rigetti as a performer in its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative -- a program seeking "utility-scale" quantum computers by 2033 -- alongside IBM and IonQ. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's (DARPA) track record includes the internet, GPS, and stealth aircraft, making its backing a meaningful vote of confidence.
Meanwhile, Washington is advancing the National Quantum Initiative (NQI) Reauthorization Act (approximately $2.7 billion) and the Department of Energy Quantum Leadership Act (approximately $2.5 billion). Europe has pledged about 2 billion euros at the European Union (E.U.) level and another 9 billion euros from member states.
China's widely cited $10 billion for quantum computing projects represents a one-time Hefei National Lab project, not recurring spend. The bottom line is that global governments are racing to fund credible players in this emerging space.
NASDAQ: RGTI
Key Data Points
How does Rigetti fit into this government-backed innovation bonanza? Rigetti manufactures at its Fab-1 facility using semiconductor-style modular methods. By wiring smaller chips into larger systems, it sidesteps yield issues that plagued single-chip designs. IBM's 1,121-qubit Condor processor (2023) underscored the limits of monolithic scaling and pushed IBM itself toward modular architectures.
Put simply, Rigetti was ahead of the curve in employing modular designs -- a critical decision that could translate into a key competitive advantage.
Extreme valuation demands caution
Rigetti raised $350 million in Q2 via an at-the-market program, ending the quarter with $571.6 million in cash and no debt. That buys time through 2026, but the opportunistic raise at lofty prices signals management's awareness that current valuations may not last.
At a $5.3 billion market cap on approximately $11 million-ish in trailing revenue, Rigetti stock trades at around 495 times sales. By comparison, traditional semiconductor giant Nvidia trades at approximately 40 times forward earnings -- with profits, proven demand, and a rock-solid moat. While rich, Nvidia's premium pales in comparison to those of Rigetti and other pure-play quantum stocks, all of which are cash-flow negative at the moment.
A speculative bet on computing's future
Quantum computing could be the next revolution -- or an expensive science experiment. Rigetti's 36-qubit milestone and DARPA backing validate its chiplet strategy, and $571.6 million in cash provides breathing room.
Still, at 495 times trailing sales, the stock's valuation prices in perfection. Thus, risk-tolerant investors might cap exposure at no more than 2% of a well-diversified portfolio. For most, though, it makes sense to wait for proof of real commercial traction before betting on Rigetti as a breakthrough play in quantum's uncertain future.
