XRP (XRP 4.42%) has advanced 725% in the last three years, with most of those gains coming in the last 12 months following President Trump's election and the SEC's decision to end its lawsuit against Ripple, a fintech company that uses the XRP blockchain to facilitate payments for businesses and financial institutions.
Geoff Kendrick at Standard Chartered anticipates more gains as XRP plays a larger role in the global financial systems and XRP ETFs bring more investors to the market. He estimates XRP to reach $12.25 by 2029. That implies 315% upside from its current price of $2.95, which is equivalent to annual returns of 43%.
That seems overly optimistic. Morningstar analysts expect the broader cryptocurrency market to grow at 9% annually through 2034, a reasonable estimate that roughly aligns with the long-term returns in the global stock market. XRP, the third-largest cryptocurrency, is likely to outperform the market, but not so much as Kendrick predicted.
Investors should be more conservative: If XRP returns 20% annually over the next five years, its price will increase about 150% to $7.35 by late 2030. The pending approval of spot XRP ETFs is the most important catalyst in my estimate, but greater adoption from businesses and financial institutions is plausible to some degree.
Here's what investors should know.
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Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse anticipates substantial adoption of XRP in the next five years
Fintech company Ripple provides cross-border payment solutions to financial institutions and businesses. Its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) service uses the XRP token as a bridge currency to make international transfers faster and less expensive than traditional wire transfers supported by the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications) messaging system.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently estimated that, within five years, XRP could capture 14% of the cross-border transaction volume currently handled by SWIFT. But I am very skeptical about that prediction. While it is true that hundreds of banks use Ripple Payments, an umbrella term that includes all its products, the vast majority do not use its ODL service.
In other words, most Ripple customers do not depend on XRP for funds transfers. After all, it makes little sense to move money with a volatile cryptocurrency that could lose a material amount of value in the few seconds required for transactions to settle.
Ripple has addressed that issue by adding a stablecoin, Ripple USD, to its ecosystem. But it faces competition from larger stablecoins like USDC and Tether.
Demand for XRP would increase (theoretically leading to price appreciation) if more businesses and financial institutions start sending payments on the XRP blockchain. That is true no matter which token serves as the bridge currency because transaction fees are paid in XRP. However, XRP is volatile, and RLUSD is much less popular than other stablecoins, which makes this part of the investment thesis weak.
The approval of spot XRP ETFs could generate demand among retail and institutional investors
Several asset managers plan to introduce exchange-traded fund that track the spot price of the XRP token. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has received at least eight applications for such products, and the decision deadline for most of them falls in late October 2025. Eric Balchunas at Bloomberg puts the odds of approval at 95%.
Spot XRP ETFs could unlock demand among retail and institutional investors by eliminating the hassle and high fees associated of cryptocurrency exchanges. Traders would no longer need separate accounts for their cryptocurrency portfolios, nor would they have to pay exorbitant transaction fees. The additional demand could drive XRP prices higher.
Indeed, Bitcoin has returned 140% since spot Bitcoin ETFs earned SEC approval about two years ago. In fact, the iShares Bitcoin Trust was the most successful ETF launch in history based on inflows, according to The Wall Street Journal. I doubt spot XRP ETFs will get as much attention, but I think XRP's price could more than double in the next five years.
However, investors should understand the risks before buying the cryptocurrency. XRP has historically been very volatile, with its price falling more than 35% from a record high three times in the last three years alone. Therefore, investors uncomfortable with large price swings should avoid the cryptocurrency.
