After a hot start following its IPO earlier this year, CoreWeave (CRWV 1.25%) shares have cooled off. That cooling continued after the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure provider reported strong third-quarter revenue growth but lowered its full-year guidance due to delays.
Let's dig into the company's recent results and outlook to see if this dip is a buying opportunity.
Potential delays ding its stock
CoreWeave is a neocloud company, which is a next-generation cloud computing company whose infrastructure is tailored to run AI workloads. The company has a close relationship with Nvidia, which gives it access to its latest and most powerful graphics processing units (GPUs). It also offers high-speed networking, storage, and managed software services.
Image source: Getty Images.
In Q3, the company's revenue surged, more than doubling from $583.9 million a year earlier to $1.36 billion. That came in well ahead of the $1.29 billion analyst consensus, as compiled by LSEG.
However, the company lowered its full-year revenue guidance, taking it to a range of $5.05 billion to $5.15 billion from an earlier forecast of $5.15 billion to $5.35 billion. CoreWeave blamed the lowered forecast on the delay in the delivery of a powered shell for one data center by a third-party developer. A powered shell is a partially completed building where the infrastructure is already set up and ready for a company to install its own equipment.
CoreWeave emphasized that the delay was not due to a lack of access to power and that it would not affect its backlog, as customers have agreed to adjust delivery schedules. Meanwhile, the company plans to more than double its capital expenditures (capex) next year.
In a positive sign, CoreWeave generated strong operating cash flow in the quarter of $1.69 billion, which was up significantly from the $641.2 million it generated in Q3 of last year. However, free cash flow was negative $1.6 billion as the company spent nearly $3.3 billion in capex.
The company ended the quarter with $1.9 billion in unrestricted cash and investments and $14 billion in debt.
NASDAQ: CRWV
Key Data Points
Should investors buy the dip?
CoreWeave is growing its revenue quickly, and the delay that will affect next quarter should not materially change anything about its long-term trajectory. The bigger question is: What are the true economics of its business model?
You need a lot of scale in cloud computing for the business to absorb fixed costs and be profitable. The company is spending a lot of money on GPUs and other assets to keep up with demand, but there are questions about what the useful life of these assets is and how much return this spending is going to generate. Famed investor Michael Burry, for example, argues that given the rapid pace of innovation in the space, the useful life of AI hardware is only two to three years, not five to six years.
If that's the case, a company like CoreWeave wouldn't be a great investment. However, Burry's argument isn't gospel, and we'll have to see how this all plays out. However, it's much more at risk in this than the big three cloud computing players -- Amazon (AMZN 1.22%), Microsoft, and Alphabet (GOOGL 0.78%) (GOOG 0.87%) -- which all have scale and other core businesses that generate strong free cash flow and profits.
Alphabet and Amazon have also developed their own custom AI chips, which is advantageous. Alphabet has said that its older tensor processing units (TPUs), which are now seven to eight years old, have 100% utilization and are still running in its data centers. That would run counter to Burry's argument against the space.
While I think CoreWeave could become a good investment, I think it remains highly speculative at this time. I tend to be less risk-tolerant, so I'd stay on the sidelines, but more aggressive investors may want to scoop up a small position in the stock.
