Over the past year, Nvidia shares have advanced 33%, bringing its market value to $4.3 trillion. Meanwhile, Palantir Technologies shares has advanced 155%, bringing its market value to $395 billion. In aggregate, the companies are worth about $4.7 trillion.
Apple could certainly surpass that figure within five years, but I also have confidence in Meta Platforms (META 0.41%) and Amazon (AMZN 0.22%). Here's what that implies for shareholders:
- Meta Platforms is currently worth about $1.6 trillion. Its market value must increase 200% to reach $4.8 trillion, and the stock must return about 25% annually to accomplish that by 2030.
- Amazon is currently worth about $2.5 trillion. Its market value must increase 95% to reach $4.8 trillion, and the stock must return about 14% annually to accomplish that by 2030.
Here's why I have confidence in those predictions.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. Meta Platforms
Meta Platforms owns three of the four most popular social media networks as measured by monthly active users. That affords the company insight into consumer preferences that lets it target content and advertising. That advantage has made Meta the second largest ad tech company in the world, and market share gains are likely as it continues to lean into artificial intelligence (AI), according to Malik Ahmed Khan at Morningstar.
Meta has developed custom AI chips, the Llama large language models that power its AI assistant, and machine learning models that recommend advertising content. It has also introduced AI creative tools that help brands automate marketing workflows. Those efforts have resulted in deeper user engagement and higher conversion rates across its social media networks, meaning users are not only spending more time on the platforms, but also clicking more ads.
However, Meta is also developing a superintelligence system that could be integrated with future iterations of its new augmented reality smart glasses. Earlier this year, CEO Mark Zuckerberg predicted AI-powered smart glasses will eventually replace smartphones as our primary computing devices. Meta is well positioned to lead the charge. It dominates the nascent smart glasses industry with 73% market share through the first half of 2025.
Meta shares trade at 28 times earnings, a relatively cheap valuation for a company whose earnings are forecast to grow at 16% annually in the next three to five years. But Meta beat the consensus estimate by an average of 16% over the last six quarters. If that continues, its market value could hit $4.8 trillion by late 2030 while its price-to-earnings (PE) multiple increases to a tolerable 35.
As a caveat, my prediction for Meta Platforms is rather aggressive. But even if the company falls short of the scenario I have outlined, the current price presents patient investors with an attractive entry point. In the long run, Meta may become the next consumer electronics giant if it realizes its ambitions with superintelligence and smart glasses.
NASDAQ: AMZN
Key Data Points
2. Amazon
The investment thesis for Amazon centers on its strength in three growing markets. The company runs the largest e-commerce marketplace in North America and Western Europe, which has translated into dominance in the retail advertising industry. And Amazon Web Services is the largest public cloud by infrastructure and platforms services spending.
Importantly, Amazon is working to monetize artificial intelligence across its e-commerce and cloud computing businesses. Its strategy includes offering a broad range of cloud services, such as Bedrock for generative AI application development and SageMaker for machine learning model development. Similarly, Amazon Q is an AI coding assistant and Quick Suite is an AI business assistant.
AWS has also developed and deployed custom AI accelerators for training and inference, called Trainium and Inferentia. Those chips allegedly offer better price performance than the current generation of graphics processing units (GPUs), and AI start-up Anthropic has agreed to use them to build and deploy future models.
Meanwhile, Amazon has developed hundreds of generative AI tools to make its retail business more efficient. That extensive list includes applications for customer service, inventory placement, and last-mile delivery. It also includes an AI model to coordinate robot movements across its warehouses, and another model (currently in development) that will let humans interact with robots using natural language.
Amazon's operating margin improved 40 basis points over the first three quarters of 2025, after expanding 400 basis points last year. But there is still room for improvement. Morgan Stanley says fulfillment and logistics costs consume more than a third of retail revenue, but innovations in AI and robotics could increase operating margin another 300 basis points by 2027.
Amazon shares currently trade at 33 times earnings, a reasonable valuation for a company whose earnings are forecast to increase at 19.5% annually during the next three to five years. If Amazon meets that consensus estimate, its market value can reach $4.8 trillion by late 2030 while its PE multiple drops to 26. I see that as a very probable outcome.
