The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD +0.27%) has increased 25% year to date, putting it ahead of Palantir Technologies (down 12%) and Nvidia (up 3%). More impressive, the gold fund outperformed both artificial intelligence stocks by at least 50 percentage points over the last six months.
Meanwhile, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF has also outperformed the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.13%) by 23 percentage points year to date and 52 percentage points over the last six months. Two hedge fund billionaires (both with excellent track records) positioned their portfolios to benefit in the third quarter.
- Israel Englander of Millennium Management added 104,900 shares of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF. The gold fund represented less than 1% of his portfolio as of September 2025.
- Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors added 255,100 shares of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF. He also bought call options on the gold fund, and they were his fourth-largest holding as of September 2025.
Millennium and Citadel outperformed the S&P 500 over the last three years, and they rank among the five most successful hedge funds in history as measured by net gains, according to LCH Investments. That makes Englander and Griffin good sources of inspiration.
Are gold funds (like the SPDR Gold Shares ETF) still worth buying?
Image source: Getty Images.
The SPDR Gold Shares ETF tracks the price of gold
The SPDR Gold Shares ETF is an exchange-traded fund run by State Street. It tracks gold prices by dividing physical bullion held in vaults into shares. Investors benefit because the fund is more liquid and more convenient than gold bars.
Additionally, gold is an attractive portfolio diversifier because its price movements have historically shown little (if any) correlation with stocks and bonds. That makes gold look especially appealing during periods of global tension, macroeconomic distress, or other situations that could cause stocks and bonds to drop.
According to State Street, "Gold has demonstrated a low and negative correlation to many financial asset indexes over time and has a track record of providing a hedge during periods of large market drawdowns, systemic risk, and geopolitical volatility."
For instance, during the financial crisis of 2008, gold prices declined 29%, while the S&P 500 dropped 57%. During the brief recession in 2020, gold prices declined 13%, while the S&P 500 dropped 34%. And when inflation hit a four-decade high in 2022, gold prices declined 21%, while the S&P 500 dropped 25%.
President Trump's policies have caused geopolitican tension and economic uncertainty
Gold prices, just like the value of any commodity, depend on supply and demand. Supply increases slowly, with above-ground gold stock growing at roughly 2% annually for the last few decades. That means demand is the most consequential variable.
Gold is considered a safe haven asset because it generally retains its value (or even increase in value) during periods of geopolitical tension and economic distress. Consequently, demand for gold tends to increase when investors are worried about war, inflation, recession, or the devaluation of fiat currency like the U.S. dollar.
President Trump has stoked those fears with tax, trade, fiscal, and foreign policy decisions. During his second term, the U.S. Dollar Index has declined 11% (falling to a four-year low) due to sweeping tariffs, tax cuts, rising government debt, attempts to compromise the Federal Reserve's independence, and threats to take Greenland by any means necessary.
Many Wall Street analysts believe the geopolitical and economic tumult created by the Trump administration will push gold prices even higher in the remaining months of 2026, but others think the precious metal is likely to lose value.
Shown in the chart below are year-end target prices for gold from several investment banks and research organizations. It also shows the implied upside (or downside) compared to the current price of $5,400 per ounce.
|
Financial Institution |
Gold Price Per Ounce in 2026 |
Upside (Downside) |
|---|---|---|
|
Bank of America |
$6,000 |
11% |
|
Deutsche Bank |
$6,000 |
11% |
|
Societe Generale |
$6,000 |
11% |
|
Morgan Stanley |
$5,700 |
5% |
|
Goldman Sachs |
$5,400 |
0% |
|
JPMorgan Chase |
$5,300 |
(2%) |
|
Citibank |
$5,000 |
(8%) |
|
Standard Chartered |
$4,800 |
(11%) |
|
Wells Fargo |
$4,700 |
(13%) |
|
Median |
$5,400 |
0% |
Data source: Reuters, CNBC, and reports from listed companies.
Of course, investors shouldn't necessarily listen to Wall Street. Gold has nearly doubled in value in the past year and few (if any) analysts expected such strong price appreciation. To that end, I think investors -- especially those who think President Trump's policies will be a continued source of global anxiety -- should consider adding exposure. In general, buying shares of a gold ETF (like the SPDR Gold Shares ETF) is a cheap and easy way to do that.
