Any prediction about a stock's future price should be taken with a big grain of salt. This one is no exception. Nobody owns a functioning crystal ball.
Still, if you can take a step back and see the bigger picture, it's possible to make a reasonable, educated guess. Here's such a guess for Rocket Lab (RKLB +0.14%) shares.
Headwinds
It's been a tough past few months for Rocket Lab stockholders. Although shares soared in May in response to impressive first-quarter results and encouraging second-quarter guidance, the stock has since fallen 57% from that late-May peak.
NASDAQ: RKLB
Key Data Points
Blame a combination of more bullish interest in newly public rival Space Exploration Technologies, and the recent announcement of its compelling-but-pricey plan to acquire Iridium Communications (IRDM +0.19%) for $8 billion. That's a sizable chunk of change for still-unprofitable Rocket Lab, which only sports a market value of $38 billion. The growing likelihood that the launch of the company's first medium-lift rocket, called Neutron, will be pushed back again all the way into 2027 is also weighing on the stock.
As is so often the case, though, emotions (including fear) may have clouded investors' collective judgment, obscuring where this stock should arguably be priced at this time. That spells opportunity.
Growth ahead, with or without Neutron
Don't misread the message. There's no arguable fundamental value for Rocket Lab's stock right now. As was noted, the company is currently unprofitable and likely will be for the foreseeable future. It's pretty speculative in the meantime.
Still, even for a speculative name, Rocket Lab isn't getting the kind of credit most stocks of its risk-based ilk would be getting at this stage. Rocket Lab has already proven its mettle as a space launch company, with its smaller Electron rocket recently completing its 94th mission. Its Neutron will get off the ground sooner or later, and likely sooner, putting the company into the critical medium-lift sliver of a space launch business that Global Market Insights expects to grow by 14.6% per year through 2034.
Image source: Getty Images.
In the meantime, the impending pairing with Iridium bolsters its already impressive satellite construction and technology capabilities, which account for the vast majority of its revenue anyway. This business is going to remain intact regardless of when Neutron is finally flying.
The kicker: Despite Neutron's developmental setbacks, customers -- including NASA, Kepler Communications, the U.S. Department of Defense, and Viasat -- have collectively contributed to a backlog that now stands at $2.36 billion. For perspective on that figure, Rocket Lab's done $434 million worth of reportable business through the first half of 2026.
Analysts are arguably on target
It's all encouraging to be sure, but it doesn't necessarily make it easy to predict with any real precision where RKLB stock will be this time next year.
The analyst community's consensus certainly doesn't seem unreasonable, though. They're arguably looking past all the recent noise and volatility and rating Rocket Lab shares as a strong buy with a 12-month price target of $113.76 that's more than 70% above the stock's present price. Given all that we know about where the company currently stands, that certainly doesn't seem like an unreasonable outlook.
