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Why Aaron's Shares Jumped

By Jeremy Bowman - Feb 7, 2014 at 4:06PM

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Is this meaningful? Or just another movement?

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our thesis.

What: Shares of Aaron's (AAN) were topping the charts once again, climbing as much as 19% after reporting earnings and receiving a buyout offer.

So what: The lease-to-own big-box store beat earnings estimates by $0.01, with a per-share profit of $0.30, though revenue fell 2.6%, to $553.9 million, slightly below the consensus at $554.9 million. Same-store sales also fell 0.9%, and first-quarter guidance was weaker than expected. What seemed to drive the spike in share price was Vintage Capital Management's disclosure of a 9.5% stake in the company, and that it made an offer to acquire Aaron's for $2.3 billion. or $30.50 a share, a 13% premium over Thursday's closing price.

Now what: Shares initially jumped as high as $32.21 this morning, but cooled down over the course of the day as it became the apparent that Aaron's may not accept the offer. Vintage has already made three private offers since 2011, but all were ignored by the Board of Directors. This being a public offer, the outcome could be different, and Aaron's management said on the earnings call that it will "evaluate it." Shares were up just 4% by the end of the trading day, however, indicating investors aren't holding their breath.

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