If you're on Social Security, there's one piece of information you probably await eagerly each year -- news of a cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA. Those annual raises are meant to help Social Security benefits keep up with rising costs, so retirees don't fall behind.

Earlier this year, Social Security benefits got a 2.8% COLA. And many retirees are hoping for a more generous raise in 2027.

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Initial estimates indicate they may get their way -- but not to the extent they might hope.

A lower COLA forecast could disappoint retirees

Following a cooler inflation report in June, independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson lowered her projection for next year's COLA to 3.7%. Just a month prior, Johnson had estimated that 2027's COLA would come in at 4.7%. So clearly, that's a big downward jump.

Of course, there's still plenty of time for that number to wiggle in either direction. Social Security COLAs are based on third-quarter inflation changes. So it's the data that comes in over the next three months that will dictate what 2027's COLA looks like.

If inflation picks up over the summer, next year's COLA could end up coming in above 4%. But if it cools even further, Social Security recipients may end up getting a COLA that's annoyingly similar to the 2.8% raise they received earlier this year.

A smaller COLA isn't necessarily bad news

If you're on Social Security, you may be hoping for a larger COLA next year than what you got this year. That's understandable. But it's important to realize that a smaller COLA means inflation is easing. That's good news for anyone on a fixed income.

If prices aren't rising as quickly, your Social Security benefits might go further. That's why it's important to understand the role COLAs are supposed to play in seniors' finances.

COLAs are meant to keep up with inflation -- not get ahead of it. If next year's COLA ends up being closer to Johnson's 4.7% estimate from last month, it will come at the expense of higher prices. That's not a win.

The Social Security Administration should announce an official COLA in mid-October, once inflation data for September comes in. Until then, it's not worth getting set on any given estimate, since that number is subject to change. It's also not worth getting worked up over a downgraded COLA projection, even though it may seem like bad news initially.