When the Social Security Administration announced last year that benefits would be getting a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, many seniors were disappointed. In fact, 54% of retirees said a 2.8% Social Security COLA wasn't going to cut in a Motley Fool survey taken after that number became official.

Little did they know it at the time, but the 54% of retirees who said a 2.8% COLA was too small were absolutely right. Inflation has soared this year, largely fueled by the Middle East conflict. As a result, that 2.8% COLA has trailed inflation for much of the year.

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There is, however, a silver lining. Since inflation has picked up, Social Security could be in for its largest COLA since 2024. But whether that's actually a good thing or not is questionable.

Social Security's 2027 COLA: What the data says so far

Social Security COLAs are calculated based on third quarter changes to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). When there's a rise in the CPI-W from one year to the next, benefits get an increase. When the CPI-W stays flat or declines, benefits stay put.

In other words, there's no such thing as a negative COLA. Social Security benefits cannot decrease from one year to the next.

Based on CPI-W readings from July and August, experts are predicting that the 2027 COLA will land in the mid 3% range. Specifically:

• The Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group, projects a 3.5% COLA.
• Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security analyst, expects a 3.5% COLA as well.
• AARP thinks the 2027 COLA will be 3.6%.

If any of these estimates end up being correct, it will make 2027's Social Security COLA the largest to arrive in four years.

In 2024, Social Security benefits got a 3.2% COLA. At the time, that raise was actually a disappointment, since the previous year's COLA was a whopping 8.7% brought on by soaring inflation that resulted from the pandemic.

In 2025, Social Security benefits got a 2.5% COLA, which was the smallest raise to arrive in five years. And as mentioned earlier, this year's COLA was 2.8% -- a modest improvement from the year prior, but insufficient in the eyes of many retirees.

If inflation levels in September are similar to July and August, Social Security benefits could see their highest COLA in four years. If inflation cools, next year's COLA may not surpass 2024's 3.2% raise.

A giant COLA isn't necessarily good news

Many seniors who are keeping tabs on Social Security COLA projections may be hoping that the actual number moves higher than 3.5% to 3.6%. But it's important to remember that a larger Social Security COLA will always come at the expense of higher prices, since those raises are pegged to inflation directly.

In other words, anyone hoping for a Social Security COLA larger than 3.5% to 3.6% is effectively hoping prices will surge during the second half of September. That's not a great thing to wish for, since it could result in a big strain in the near term.

When the official number comes out

September's CPI-W is set to be released on Oct. 14, so that's when the Social Security Administration can make its 2027 COLA official. But even then, seniors may not have the full story. That's because dual enrollees in Social Security and Medicare pay for Part B out of their monthly benefits.

News of a standard Part B premium for 2027, however, may not come out until November. So even once a COLA is announced, it may be too soon for some beneficiaries to start calculating exactly how much their checks will go up in the new year.