2 Monster Growth Stocks in the Making

When you buy a stock, the worst thing that can happen is that you lose 100% of your investment. Of course, that's not a great outcome, but the downside is smaller than the upside. In other words, when you buy a stock, the upside doesn't stop at 100%. Your initial investment could grow multiple times in value, transforming even a small sum of money into life-changing wealth.

With that in mind, both of these tech companies look like monster stocks in the making. Here's what you should know.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. Global-E Online

Global-E Online (GLBE 2.58%) may be an unfamiliar name for many investors, but this e-commerce company provides a valuable service. Specifically, Global-E simplifies and accelerates cross-border sales, helping merchants grow their businesses in international markets.

To do that, Global-E integrates with digital storefronts, localizing the language, currency, and shipping options on a market-by-market basis. Its software already supports integrations with the most popular digital payments and commerce platforms, including PayPal, Salesforce's Commerce Cloud, and Adobe's Magento. And the company recently formed an exclusive partnership with Shopify, the most popular e-commerce software vendor in the U.S.

But localizing web content is only half the battle. Global-E also helps merchants navigate the regulatory complexities (e.g., taxes, import duties) associated with international sales, and it provides after-sale customer support and returns management. In short, Global-E is an end-to-end solution for cross-border commerce.

That's a big deal. By optimizing web content for international buyers, Global-E boosts conversion rates for sellers, often in excess of 60%. And that value proposition has helped the company grow rapidly. Over the last 12 months, Global-E facilitated 6 million transactions, totaling $1.1 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV), which has translated into strong top-line growth. 

Data source: Global-E SEC filings. TTM = trailing 12 months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.

Since 2018, Global-E has kept its gross retention above 98%, meaning less than 2% of customers cancel service. The company has also kept net retention above 140%, meaning the average customer spends 40% more each year. Both of those metrics evidence the value that Global-E creates for its clients.

Looking ahead, Forrester Research puts the global e-commerce market at $736 billion by 2023 -- over 600 times Global-E's GMV over the last 12 months. That's why this looks like a monster stock in the making.

2. Upstart 

Upstart (UPST 2.12%) is a fintech company that aims to improve access to affordable financing. Traditionally, banks have relied on credit scores to determine who qualifies for a loan and at what interest rate. But the idea that a three-digit number -- calculated using just 12 to 20 variables -- can reliably identify risk is an antiquated notion. Consider this: Would you feel comfortable lending your money to a stranger if you could only ask them 20 questions?

To modernize the system, Upstart takes a novel approach to consumer credit. Its platform leans on artificial intelligence (AI) to collect and analyze over 1,600 data points per applicant, measuring that information against 10.5 million repayment events (and counting). Every time a borrower makes or misses a payment, Upstart's AI models get a little smarter.

Why does that matter? Upstart's AI-powered platform allows banks to lower loss rates by nearly 75% while keeping approval rates the same. By the same token, banks can also approve more borrowers (at lower interest rates) while keeping loss rates constant.

No matter how you cut it, this creates a network effect. As more banks use Upstart to originate loans, the company collects more data, making its AI models better at predicting risk. And that translates into lower loss rates (or higher approval rates) for all of Upstart's banking partners. That value proposition has powered strong growth over the last two-and-a-half years. 

Data source: Upstart SEC filings, YCharts. TTM = trailing 12 months CAGR = compound annual growth rate.

As of Dec. 31, 2020, Upstart had just 12 banks using its platform to originate loans, but CEO David Girouard believes that figure will be in the hundreds in a couple of years. And given the company's powerful technology, I'm inclined to agree.

Currently, Upstart powers the origination of personal and auto loans, which collectively total over $700 billion each year. But the company plans to enter other markets as well, including credit cards, mortgages, and student loans, addressing the broader $4.2 trillion lending industry. Given the scope of the company's ambitions and its AI-powered competitive advantage, I think Upstart looks like a monster growth stock in the making.