How to find the best defense stocks
The defense sector tends to be a stable group of companies with a few failures and a few standouts. Here are some tips for evaluating individual defense companies.
Listen to the customer
The Pentagon has an insatiable appetite for new equipment. But with aircraft carriers costing more than $10 billion and F-35 fighters priced at $100 million or more, the government can only buy so much. To identify the likely winners and losers, pay close attention to the budgeting process.
Early in the year, the Pentagon sends a funding request to Congress, which then holds hearings to discuss priorities and make final allocation choices throughout the spring and into the summer. An investor need not hang on every word. However, the budget request, available on the Pentagon's website, and commentary elsewhere can provide clues about which billion-dollar programs are administration priorities.
Follow the numbers
Companies often highlight massive contract awards in press releases without explaining that those big-dollar figures are often spread out over many years and may depend on Congress approving the funds. Pay attention to these metrics when evaluating defense stocks:
- Free cash flow: This is important for any business, but it can vary for defense contractors depending on whether their projects are new or well-established. Companies often spend more in the early stages of a production contract, temporarily depressing cash flow.
- Corporate backlogs: Investors should pay close attention to these, as they represent future contracts that have been awarded but not yet executed. How much of a backlog has been funded and how much must go through the congressional budgeting process can vary greatly.
- Book-to-bill ratio: This metric compares the value of orders received in a given quarter to the value billed in that quarter and indicates a company's growth potential. A growing company should have a book-to-bill ratio of at least 1.0, implying that orders for future products are being booked at a rate that equals or exceeds what is being shipped today.
Defense companies know investors are focused on these metrics and typically provide the relevant information in quarterly earnings reports or conference calls.
Benefits and risks of investing in defense stocks
There are pros and cons to investing in defense stocks. Here are some factors to consider before adding them to your portfolio.
Benefits