Although it has endured a rough road since its debut on public markets, Rivian (RIVN +10.70%) stock remains a popular consideration among growth investors, who are eager to find Rivian stock price predictions as a data point to help inform their decisions to buy Rivian stock.
In its third-quarter 2025 financial results, for example, Rivian demonstrated how customer demand for its electric trucks remains strong. The company reported revenue of $1.6 billion, a 78% increase over the same period in 2024.
With the challenges that have plagued the company over the past few years in the rearview mirror, investors should recognize the important milestones that Rivian could achieve in the coming years. Doing so could contribute to the electric vehicle (EV) stock charging considerably higher.
NASDAQ: RIVN
Key Data Points
Rivian (RIVN) forecast
Climbing 26.8% through the first 11 months of 2025, Rivian stock outpaced the S&P 500, which had risen 17.5%. Although the company remains unprofitable, investors celebrated its progress in reducing expenses.
Rivian's net loss through the first nine months of 2025 was $2.8 billion, compared to a $4 billion net loss through the same period in 2024. With the company's financials improving and a new product launch planned for 2026, there's ample potential for Rivian shares to continue driving higher.
2026 forecast
In fiscal 2026, analysts anticipate Rivian generating sales of $6.9 billion. If the company achieves this feat at the top of the income statement and succeeds in producing and delivering the more affordable R2 model in 2026, investors should reward the company considerably.
With investor confidence building, it's not unreasonable to speculate that the stock could trade at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 7. In this case, with the company reporting fiscal 2026 revenue of $6.9 billion and its shares outstanding remaining at the current level of 1.23 billion, Rivian stock would trade at approximately $39.27 per share.
Wall Street is mixed regarding Rivian's price targets. In mid-November 2025, DA Davidson and Stifel revealed price targets of $15 and $17, respectively, although neither firm provided the exact time frames of their price targets. Taking a more bullish stand, Tigress Financial issued a 12-month price target of $25 in mid-November.
2030 forecast
If Rivian begins deliveries of the R2 in 2026 and the entry-level crossover vehicle R3 in 2028, the carmaker will demonstrate its implementation of a strategy similar to Tesla (TSLA -0.46%). Tesla led with offering luxury models and proceeded to provide the market with a more economical offering, the Model 3. Tesla introduced the Model 3 in 2017.
Over the next two years, Tesla's sales grew at a 45% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). If we project that Rivian grows sales at a much more modest 20% CAGR from the projected $6.9 billion in 2026 through 2030, it will translate to revenue of about $14.5 billion in 2023. Assuming, again, a conservative P/S ratio of 7 and 1.23 billion shares outstanding, Rivian stock would be changing hands at $82.52.
Key drivers of Rivian's stock performance
Over the past few years, investors have punished Rivian stock for its consistent failure to meet management's expectations. From the time of its initial public offering (IPO) in November 2021 through Dec. 5, 2025, shares of Rivian plunged 82.2%.
In the Form S-1 that Rivian filed in preparation for its IPO, management stated an expectation that its manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois, would achieve an annual production capacity of 200,000 vehicles by 2023. Coming up significantly short of that mark, Rivian stated in its fourth-quarter 2022 shareholder letter that it aimed to achieve annual production capacity of 50,000 units in 2023.
Due to complications in its supply chain, it has consistently fallen short of its 200,000 annual vehicle production target. In 2024, Rivian produced 49,476 vehicles and suggested minimal growth -- if not a decline -- in 2025, with production between 46,000 and 51,000 vehicles.
Delays in the development of the company's manufacturing facility in Georgia represent another factor contributing to the stock's poor performance. Initially, Rivian had planned on starting production of the R2 in 2026 at the facility under development in Georgia. In March 2024, however, the company pivoted to planning production of the R2 at its Illinois facility, citing construction delays.
Related investing topics
Since its IPO, Rivian has shone brightly on the radars of EV investors. While the stock has struggled to accelerate higher over the past few years, there's no reason it can't pull a U-turn and head higher should it proceed to offer the R2 and R3 vehicles to consumers and commence operations at the facility in Georgia.
For EV investors, Rivian stock or an EV exchange-traded fund (ETF) that includes Rivian among its holdings is a compelling consideration since its shares have the potential to race higher over the next few years. Of course, there's no certainty that the company will execute its strategy, so it's important to recognize that a Rivian investment also entails a fair degree of risk.
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