Target's inventory was up a massive 40% at the beginning of 2022 from the year-before levels, and 30% higher at the beginning of the second quarter. Even for a retailer of Target's size, it was a massive increase in goods that set a very high bar for sales growth to avoid ending up with excess inventory that it would need to discount to unload.
From the 2021 peak through mid-2023, Target's stock fell by half, in large part because of its aggressive moves to fill its shelves with goods that it struggled to sell.
Admittedly, we are applying some hindsight bias here. But a savvy analyst who understands retail could have seen a potential problem in the making for Target, and seen it as a stock to avoid. On the other side of the coin, that same savvy analyst might look at Target today, and see a company that's gotten this issue under control, while the stock is still discounted as a result of something that's no longer a threat to profits.