Three weeks ago, I made the case for why Tesla (TSLA 0.99%) stock -- not Rivian Automotive (RIVN 3.08%) and certainly not Lucid Group (LCID +3.85%) -- is the strongest bet on electric-vehicle (EV) stocks today. Tesla stock cost $449 a share when I wrote that. It costs the exact same $449 today, Jan. 23.
You will therefore not be shocked to learn that my opinion of Tesla stock... also has not changed.
Image source: Tesla.
Why not? Valued at just under $1.5 trillion and boasting $4.8 billion in earnings over the last 12 months, Tesla stock costs a staggering 310 times earnings. Valued on earnings alone, it's not a cheap stock. Yet Tesla still earns more than any of its EV rivals, with the possible exception of BYD. BYD's GAAP earnings are $5.5 billion, but its free cash flow is negative, versus positive-$6.8 billion for Tesla.
If you want to own any EV stock, therefore, I think Tesla is the best one to own.
Now, here are three reasons you might want to buy Tesla stock after Tesla reports earnings on Wednesday but before it reports earnings again in April -- and ideally, before March.
Buy after Wednesday
Tesla will report its Q4 2025 earnings on Wednesday, and the news probably won't be great. Analysts are forecasting a 3.7% decline in revenue to $24.8 billion, and a 38% decline in earnings to $0.45 per share. The company might miss those numbers, though.
Q4 deliveries missed expectations earlier this month, falling 15.6% year over year. This sales-tracker data implies a revenue decline much steeper than 3.7%, and if that happens, the stock could sell off -- giving you a chance to buy in at a better price.
NASDAQ: TSLA
Key Data Points
Buy before FSD approval
Tesla is seeking permission to operate its electric cars with full self-driving (FSD) in both Europe and China. Elon Musk has said he expects to receive FSD approval in either or both countries, potentially as early as March, permitting the company to both market FSD as a high-profit-margin service and expand testing of its cars' autonomous driving functions there.
Investors are likely to respond positively to a positive outcome, potentially lifting the stock price after a post-earnings sell-off in January.
Buy before Cybercabs start hitting the streets
Elon Musk plans to begin production of his fully autonomous, driverless Cybercab EV in April. And granted, Musk is famous for setting aggressive targets and then missing them, sometimes by quite a lot. Still, the potential for Cybercab to begin rolling out of the factory and onto the highway in April means you have to anticipate at least the possibility that the stock will take off then. Buying in March or even February eliminates the risk that you'll be buying too late to cash in on the Cybercab enthusiasm.
