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Today’s Evening News: Did We Misread the AI Threat?
5:55 pm
Oracle (ORCL +4.05%) jumped 11% on Monday, sparking a comeback across software as investors rethink whether artificial intelligence (AI) is disruption -- or just the next upgrade cycle. Stock Advisor recommendations Adobe (ADBE +1.24%), Salesforce (CRM +1.63%), and ServiceNow (NOW +2.43%) followed, with buyers putting money back into a group that’s been under pressure all year. This week, the market seems willing to bet the incumbents won’t go quietly.
- Foolishly speaking: A Foolish approach may favor owning software businesses with high switching costs and embedded workflows -- where "rip and replace" is costly, and AI becomes an enhancement, not a threat.
- Incumbents alongside start-ups: Last week, leonardobruge shared their take that "The future winners in enterprise will probably be a mix of new start-ups, AI-native, and incumbent players" and that enterprise customers will prioritize "safety, control, easiness to deploy, and specialization (accuracy)."
Closing Bell
4:05 pm
The S&P 500 climbed Monday as investors bet U.S.-Iran tensions could ease despite a fresh blockade and stalled talks. Tech helped lead the rebound, with Oracle (ORCL +4.05%) jumping 11% and Palantir Technologies (PLTR +1.22%) up 3%. Oil surged toward $100, underscoring the stakes around the Strait of Hormuz. Markets appear to be balancing near-term geopolitical risk with optimism for a diplomatic path—and steady earnings.
- Oil’s Grip Tightens: Crude near $100 keeps pressure on inflation and margins, making energy exposure and cost discipline central for investors.
- Tech Still Leads: Software strength suggests capital is rotating toward companies with durable demand despite macro uncertainty.
Apple’s AI Strategy? Wait It Out.
3:23 pm — AAPL -0.99%
While rivals pour billions into AI, Apple (AAPL 1.07%) is taking a slower path, projecting about $14 billion in capex versus far larger budgets elsewhere, including Meta Platforms (META +0.68%). The bet: AI costs may fall as models proliferate, letting Apple invest later with more clarity. Critics see lag but bulls see discipline. With its ecosystem intact, Apple may not need to win the first inning of AI to stay competitive over the long term.
- Cost curve wildcard: Rapid model iteration and techniques like distillation could compress AI development costs, rewarding late movers. Apple’s installed base and services layer may cushion slower feature rollouts while it waits to deploy AI more selectively.
- Don't Sleep on Apple: "Apple is definitely not a unique investment idea in the AI space," Team Rule Breakers analyst Sanmeet Deo recently wrote. "But a consensus narrative shift of its business and its role in the AI wars could further propel the stock higher as it figures out its own AI strategy," he added.
And now for Your Take! Member ChrisBrooklyn commented last month, "I sold two-thirds of my Apple stock the last three years. It's still one of the largest positions in my portfolio—it had grown to maybe 25%. But Siri and that feeling of stagnation concerned me a lot, as signs of a company too comfortable in its moat." Are you buying Apple’s wait-and-see approach to AI? Join the discussion below!
NASDAQ: AAPL
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Up 60% YTD, Can AI Lift Nokia Higher?
3:04 pm — NOK +8.83%
While you weren’t looking, Nokia (NOK +2.25%) has surged 58.14% year to date — and Monday added to the run after a bullish call from Bank of America (BAC 0.56%). The firm upgraded shares and pointed to rising AI-driven demand for optical networking, with upside tied to Nokia’s Infinera integration and growing hyperscaler spend. Investors are increasingly framing Nokia as an AI infrastructure play alongside partners like Nvidia (NVDA +0.06%), with further upside implied by a $12.40 price target.
- Optics, not handsets: Nokia’s optical networks unit could grow revenue at a 17% CAGR through 2028, shifting mix toward higher-margin services. In this context, “optics” refers to fiber-optic hardware and systems that transmit data as light—critical infrastructure for moving massive AI workloads between data centers and cloud networks.
- AI deal flow builds: Partnerships and hyperscaler spend may drive both sales growth and margin expansion, reframing Nokia’s long-term narrative; Nokia is no longer being valued as a slow, cyclical telecom vendor. That’s a big shift in how the market thinks about this business.
AI Demand Sends CoreWeave 10% Higher
2:36 pm — CRWV +8.50%, META +0.24%
CoreWeave (CRWV 0.03%) surged after a wave of analyst price-target hikes followed major AI deals and fresh financing. A $21 billion expansion with Meta Platforms (META +0.68%) and a new Anthropic partnership reinforce its role in AI infrastructure. Reports of about 20% price hikes and longer contract terms suggest tightening supply and rising pricing power as inference demand accelerates.
- $21B Vote Of Confidence: Meta’s long-term spend commitment locks in demand visibility through 2032, strengthening CoreWeave’s positioning with hyperscalers.
- Pricing Power Emerges: Higher prices and longer contracts hint at scarce compute and improving unit economics—key for funding rapid build-out.
NASDAQ: CRWV
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Conagra Shake-Up Amid Slump
2:13 pm — CAG -4.78%
Conagra Brands (CAG +2.70%) is replacing longtime CEO Sean Connolly with industry veteran John Brase, effective June 1, as the packaged-food giant navigates weak demand, inflation, and shifting eating habits tied to GLP-1 drugs. The board said Connolly’s exit is “without cause,” ending a decade-long tenure as shares have fallen more than 40% over the past year. Brase, formerly COO at J.M. Smucker (SJM +0.43%), steps in after a recent earnings miss and lowered outlook, with analysts calling the move a needed reset.
- Fresh eyes, same pressures: Brase brings decades at Procter & Gamble (PG 0.11%) and Smucker, but inherits slowing grocery demand and changing consumer behavior. With profits trending toward the low end of guidance, execution—not strategy—may define whether this reset works.
- Database saw it coming: In the Moneyball Hidden Gems leadership database, Conagra’s Superscore of 30—with Leadership at 42 and Intangibles at 35—flagged persistent execution risk, mirroring a decade of uneven growth, volatile margins, and mounting concerns around pay-for-performance alignment. "Despite the CEO's long tenure, which generally suggests stability, the period has also been marked by strategic missteps that impacted investor confidence," the database says.
NYSE: CAG
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Lululemon Slips on Texas 'Forever Chemicals' Probe
1:05pm -- LULU -0.74%
Lululemon (LULU +0.93%) shares fell as much as 4.5% today after Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton announced an investigation into whether the yogawear brand's apparel contains PFAS -- so-called "forever chemicals" linked to cancer and immune health issues. The probe will examine whether Lululemon's marketing misled health-conscious customers about the presence of these synthetic compounds in its products.
The investigation adds to a growing list of headaches for Lululemon, which is already navigating slowing sales growth, resurfacing quality concerns, founder pressure for a board overhaul, and a CEO search. Paxton has launched a series of similar probes aligned with the Make America Healthy Again agenda, previously targeting companies including WK Kellogg and toothpaste makers over health-related marketing concerns.
Today's Lunchtime News: Tesla Cracks the European Union
1:00pm -- TSLA +1.14%
Tesla (TSLA 0.57%) won approval for its full self-driving (FSD) software in the Netherlands, the first E.U. country to approve the system after more than 18 months of testing. The approval could pave the way for a broader European rollout, though all E.U. member states must vote before access is granted across the continent.
- Revenue opportunity: FSD is priced at 99 euros per month in the Netherlands or 7,500 euros outright. Investors will look for updates on Tesla's autonomous-driving progress when the company reports Q1 earnings on April 22.
- Cost advantage in focus: Separately, Bank of America (BAC 0.56%) estimates Tesla's vision-only approach puts robotaxi build costs at roughly $40,000 per vehicle versus $150,000 for Waymo's LiDAR-equipped cars. That cost differential looms large as Tesla prepares to expand its Austin robotaxi service to seven more U.S. cities this year.
Meta Set to Dethrone Google in Digital Ads
12:21pm -- META -0.45%, GOOG +0.10%
Meta Platforms (META +0.68%) is on track to surpass Alphabet (GOOG +0.17%) in global digital ad revenue for the first time ever, according to Emarketer. Meta's net ad revenues are projected to hit $243.46 billion in 2026, edging out Google's $239.54 billion. The key driver is Meta's accelerating growth rate — forecast at 24.1% this year versus Google's steady 11.9%.
- Advantage+ fueling the surge: Meta's automated ad suite has won over advertisers with its ability to streamline campaign setup and boost returns, validating the company's core ad strategy.
- Smaller platforms at risk: As ad budgets concentrate on the biggest players, Snap (SNAP 0.58%) and Pinterest remain most exposed to any pullback in spending during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.
OpenAI Leans on Amazon to Break Free From Microsoft
12:09pm
OpenAI's new revenue chief Denise Dresser sent staff a memo Sunday touting its Amazon Web Services partnership as a key growth driver. It also acknowledged that its Microsoft (MSFT +2.13%) deal has "limited our ability to meet enterprises where they are." Microsoft has invested more than $13 billion in OpenAI since 2019. Demand for Amazon's (AMZN +0.08%) Bedrock platform since the partnership announcement has been "frankly staggering," Dresser wrote.
The memo also takes aim at Anthropic, claiming its $30 billion revenue run rate is inflated by roughly $8 billion due to accounting treatment, and that it has made a "strategic misstep" by not acquiring enough compute. Anthropic disputes the characterization. Both companies are racing to dominate enterprise AI ahead of their anticipated IPOs, with Alphabet (GOOG +0.17%)'s Gemini also competing aggressively for the same customers.
Top of the Morning
11:00am
By Morning Show host Jim Gillies
It’s a “Merger Monday!” And I’m actually quite annoyed about this one.
Let me back up and explain.
SECURE Waste Infrastructure (SES +1.62%) – a leading provider of waste management energy infrastructure services in Western Canada - is being acquired by larger industry player GFL Environmental (GFL +1.76%)(GFL +2.10%) in a cash and stock deal that values SECURE at roughly CA$6.4 billion including debt. The purchase price for the equity is CA$24.75 per share, though with just 20% of the purchase price being paid in cash and the other 80% coming in the form of newly issued GFL shares, the ultimate price received by SECURE shareholders will depend on how the market receives this news and treats GFL’s share price.
In GFL’s press release announcing the deal they speak of all of the great things that acquiring SECURE is going to do for them: Immediately accretive and increasing free cash flow (FCF) by 12%-to-15%, increasing adjusted EBITDA and FCF margins, all done with no real impact on GFL’s leverage (which has trended in years past from “elevated” to “disconcerting”.)
And I agree with them (GFL) – they are getting a great company here. At Fool Canada we think so highly of SECURE that in the span of five months (late February to early July 2025) we formally recommended the name in all three of our “frontline” Canadian Foolish services: Dividend Investor Canada, Hidden Gems Canada, and Stock Advisor Canada.
10:15 am
By Morning Show host Loren Horst
Team Rule Breakers
My episodic series of trying to uncover some of the underfollowed and underappreciated winners deep in our longest-serving scorecards has graduated from Stock Advisor and moved into our second-oldest active scorecard, Rule Breakers.
The full Rule Breakers scorecard is visible to subscribers of our Epic service, and this week I wanted to highlight three companies breaking the rules and beating the market that many Fools might not have realized were ever recommended, let alone active recommendations: Broadcom (AVGO +0.30%), First Solar (FSLR 1.17%), and MasTec (MTZ 1.65%).
For our December basket of stocks, the Fool’s AI engineering and Premium Content teams and I put the spotlight on one-time recommendations from Stock Advisor, and January’s bonus set called attention to stocks that recovered into market beaters after trailing at the five-year mark.
All of these shared the characteristics of having outperformed the S&P 500 since initially recommended, while also exceeding the market over the trailing five years to meet a "What have you done for me lately?" factor.
As it turns out, the Rule Breakers mantra of adding to your winners -- exemplified by Fool co-founder David Gardner formalizing re-recommendations into a monthly Rule Breakers habit when the service previously made two monthly recommendations -- resulted in just a pair of decade-plus winners without a subsequent re-rec and as many early losers that avoided being sold before they could turn around. Interestingly, three names bubbled up instead of four, with MasTec at the middle of that Venn diagram.
Click here for my full-length intro with links to the AI-powered stock updates available to all Motley Fool members.
9:05 am — GS -4.88% in pre-market trading
By Morning Show host Sanmeet Deo
Team Rule Breakers
Goldman Sachs Group (GS +0.62%) delivered a powerhouse Q1 2026 performance that initially looked like a clean sweep, but the market’s mixed reaction proves that the "devil is in the details." While net revenue jumped 14% to $17.23 billion and EPS of $17.55 blew past expectations, a closer look at the engine room explains the caution. The star of the show was the equities desk, which pulled in a record $5.33 billion, yet this was partially offset by a sluggish Fixed Income (FICC) segment that missed analyst targets by nearly $850 million.
The post-earnings dip--compounded by a broader inflation-driven market sell-off--raises a compelling valuation question. Currently, Goldman is trading at a forward P/E ratio of approximately 16x.
NYSE: GS
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Trump's 50% China Tariff Threat Rattles Trade
10:00 am
President Trump threatened a "staggering" 50% tariff on China during a Sunday Fox News (FOX +1.09%) interview, following intelligence reports that Beijing may be preparing to ship advanced air defense systems to Iran. While Trump labeled the underlying CNN report as potentially "fake," he insisted that any country caught supplying military hardware to Tehran would face immediate economic retaliation. The threat comes despite recent reports from the New York Times (NYT 2.38%) suggesting China actually pressured Iran toward last week's temporary ceasefire. Beijing has maintained it is actively promoting peace but has not confirmed an official mediation role in the conflict.
- Trade War Escalation: A 50% levy would represent a massive expansion of current trade barriers, significantly impacting Apple (AAPL 1.07%) and other multinational manufacturers heavily reliant on Chinese supply chains.
- Geopolitical Volatility: The threat of renewed tariffs adds a layer of economic risk to the ongoing Middle East conflict, as investors weigh the impact of potential trade disruptions on global retail giants like Nike (NKE +2.00%).
NASDAQ: AAPL
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Top of the Morning
9:05 am -- GS -4.88% in pre-market trading
By Morning Show host Sanmeet Deo
Team Rule Breakers
Goldman Sachs Group (GS +0.62%) delivered a powerhouse Q1 2026 performance that initially looked like a clean sweep, but the market's mixed reaction proves that the "devil is in the details." While net revenue jumped 14% to $17.23 billion and EPS of $17.55 blew past expectations, a closer look at the engine room explains the caution. The star of the show was the equities desk, which pulled in a record $5.33 billion, yet this was partially offset by a sluggish Fixed Income (FICC) segment that missed analyst targets by nearly $850 million.
The post-earnings dip--compounded by a broader inflation-driven market sell-off--raises a compelling valuation question. Currently, Goldman is trading at a forward P/E ratio of approximately 16x.
NYSE: GS
Key Data Points
Intel Surges From "Life Support" to Top Performer
9:00 am -- INTC -0.19% in pre-market trading
Intel (INTC +4.70%) has transitioned from "life support" to one of the S&P 500's top performers, adding over $100 billion in market value during a historic eight-day rally. The surge was ignited by a $14.2 billion deal to reclaim its Irish plant from Apollo Global Management, followed by a high-profile partnership with Tesla (TSLA 0.57%) and SpaceX for Elon Musk's Terafab project. Despite trailing the S&P 500 since 2020, Intel's narrative is accelerating as it secures its position as a strategic domestic foundry asset. The U.S. government's stake has swelled to $27 billion, reflecting growing confidence that the semiconductor giant is successfully reclaiming its competitive edge.
- High-Stakes Valuation: While shares trade at a record 90 times estimated earnings--well above dot-com bubble peaks--bullish analysts argue that Wall Street is underestimating long-term earnings potential as Intel shifts to expansion mode.
- Turnaround Validation: Beyond the Musk deal, Intel has secured future Xeon processor commitments from Alphabet's (GOOG +0.17%) Google, alongside previous backing from Nvidia (NVDA +0.06%), suggesting the company is becoming an indispensable partner in the global AI infrastructure race.
Super Mario Galaxy Movie Tops 2026 Box Office
8:15 am -- CMCSA +0.21% in pre-market trading
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie from Comcast (CMCSA +1.89%) has officially become Hollywood's highest-grossing film of 2026, amassing $628.8 million globally in its opening weeks. The live-action sequel, produced by Universal and Illumination, is riding massive momentum from its $300 million domestic haul and is now favored to reach the $1 billion mark. This performance reinforces the immense value of Nintendo's intellectual property following the 2023 predecessor's $1.3 billion run. While the film faces a crowded summer slate including Avengers: Doomsday, its current trajectory suggests a dominant year for Universal's theatrical division.
- Content Strategy Payoff: The film's success validates the long-term partnership between Universal and Nintendo, providing a high-margin revenue stream that offsets volatility in traditional cable and broadcast segments.
- Theatrical Dominance: By outpacing early 2026 projections, Mario provides Comcast a significant lead in market share over rivals, establishing a formidable "moat" ahead of Disney's heavy-hitting summer releases.
NASDAQ: CMCSA
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GFL Deepens Western Canada Reach in CA$6B Deal
8:00 am -- GFL -3.67% in pre-market trading
GFL Environmental (GFL +2.10%) is reportedly nearing a CA$6 billion ($4.33 billion) acquisition of Calgary-based Secure Waste Infrastructure (SECYF +2.07%). The deal, structured primarily as an 80% stock transaction, values Secure at a 15% premium and would give its shareholders a 15% stake in the combined entity. Under CEO Patrick Dovigi, GFL has utilized aggressive M&A to triple its market value in six years; this latest move significantly deepens its footprint in Western Canada's industrial and energy waste sectors. The merger follows GFL's recent $900 million purchase of Frontier Waste Solutions, signaling a relentless drive for North American scale through consolidation.
- Strategic Synergy: The acquisition allows GFL to cross-sell traditional waste services into Secure's existing energy infrastructure client base, potentially driving significant cost efficiencies across the combined Canadian operations.
- Vertical Integration: By absorbing Secure's pipeline and storage assets, GFL is diversifying beyond residential trash collection into higher-margin industrial waste streams, mirroring the consolidation strategies seen in major logistics and energy sectors.
NYSE: GFL
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This Morning's Breakfast News
7:30 am
We're entering bank reporting season, after the stock market put in another positive week. The S&P 500 gained 3.6%, while the Nasdaq climbed 4.7%, after the threat of escalation of the Iran conflict subsided. The S&P 500 is within 1% of breaking even in 2026 year to date. S&P 500 futures, however, lost 0.6% this morning – with Nasdaq futures off by 0.7% – as President Trump again raised the heat after weekend negotiations with Tehran bore little fruit.
- Oil back over $100 again: The prospect of a blockade of all ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz having called at Iranian ports pushed WTI crude to $105 per barrel, with Brent Crude hitting $103.
- Banks unofficially lead out the new reporting season: Goldman Sachs (GS +0.62%) kicks off first-quarter bank results before the opening bell today. JPMorgan Chase (JPM +0.88%), Wells Fargo (WFC +1.56%), and Citigroup (C 1.41%) are on the calendar for Tuesday. Bank of America (BAC 0.56%) and Morgan Stanley (MS 1.71%) report Wednesday.
McDonald's Takes Aim at Starbucks With New Drinks
7:25 am -- MCD -0.21% in pre-market trading
McDonald's (MCD +0.43%) is preparing to launch a specialty beverage line this August, featuring Red Bull Dragonberry and custom sodas like "Dirty Dr Pepper." The fast-food leader aims to weaponize its massive scale to undercut the pricing of premium competitors, positioning these offerings as affordable alternatives for a wider customer base. Franchisees have already invested thousands in specialized mixing equipment to ensure these high-margin drinks don't disrupt kitchen throughput. This expansion marks a permanent shift toward the "caffeine and refreshment" territory traditionally dominated by boutique cafes and specialized soda shops.
- Targeting the Competition: The strategy directly threatens the market share of Starbucks (SBUX +0.14%) and Dutch Bros (BROS 1.21%) by offering sophisticated energy and tea blends at a lower price point during critical afternoon "snack" hours.
- Margin Expansion: Because beverages typically carry lower cost-of-goods than labor-intensive food items, successful adoption could significantly boost profitability for operators, offsetting broader inflationary pressures across the quick-service industry.
NYSE: MCD
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FTC Probes Ad Giants for Boycotting X Platform
6:30 am -- WPP +0.63% in pre-market trading
The Federal Trade Commission is in talks with a number of advertising companies over alleged coordinated boycotts of platforms including X, says the WSJ. A probe into possible federal antitrust law violations – covering WPP (WPP +2.05%), Japan's Dentsu, and others.
- "The only harm X has asserted is that its customers collectively chose X's competitors over X": The latest move follows last month's dismissal by Senior U.S. Judge Jane J. Boyle of X's lawsuit against companies including CVS Health (CVS +0.84%) and Colgate-Palmolive (CL +0.47%), claiming their boycotts violated antitrust.
- No admission of wrongdoing: The proposal reportedly means the ad companies will agree not to avoid media outlets for political reasons. Individual advertisers can still choose to avoid platforms hosting undesirable content.
Meta's Zuckerberg AI Twin Signals Bold AI Pivot
6:00 am -- META -1.39% in pre-market trading
Meta Platforms (META +0.68%) is developing a photorealistic, 3D AI version of CEO Mark Zuckerberg to interact with employees and streamline corporate feedback. Zuckerberg is reportedly spending up to 10 hours a week coding on internal AI projects and training this digital twin on his specific tone, mannerisms, and strategic thinking. This push for "personal superintelligence" coincided with the release of Muse Spark, a specialized AI model that sent shares up 7% as investors cheered the company's technical pace. Beyond executive avatars, Meta is implementing "skills baseline exercises" for staff, including "vibe coding" tests, as it pivots the entire $1.6 trillion organization toward an AI-first operating model.
- Infrastructure Payoff: Meta's multibillion-dollar spending spree on compute capacity, including its recent $21 billion deal with CoreWeave (CRWV 0.03%), is now yielding proprietary models like Muse Spark that challenge leaders like Alphabet (GOOG +0.17%).
- Internal Efficiency and Risks: While management pushes AI automation to "streamline" product management, the internal rollout of these tools has sparked concerns over future job cuts, even as the tech proves difficult to scale due to massive processing requirements.
NASDAQ: META
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Replimune Collapses on Second FDA Rejection
5:15 am -- REPL -56.09% in pre-market trading
Replimune Group (REPL +0.22%) shares plunged over 40% last week, and are down significantly this morning, after the FDA issued a second Complete Response Letter rejecting its RP1 melanoma therapy. The regulatory setback prompted analyst downgrades and raised serious questions about the biotech company's survival prospects.
- Second rejection devastates investors: The FDA cited concerns about the single-arm trial design and manufacturing issues, echoing objections from the first rejection in July 2025 and sending shares down roughly 20% on the announcement.
- Survival strategy now critical: With RP1 representing the company's lead program, analysts note that Replimune's future hinges on executing a strategic pivot to preserve shareholder value and refocus on other pipeline candidates.
Before the Opening Bell
4:30 am
Stock futures recovered from overnight lows Monday as investors digested President Trump's executive order for a U.S. Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The aggressive move follows the collapse of high-stakes negotiations in Islamabad, ending hopes for a permanent de-escalation. While the Navy intends to interdict ships paying Iranian "tolls," the blockade effectively halts critical energy flows, sending Brent crude surging back above $100 per barrel. Despite the geopolitical friction, markets found some footing as attention shifted to the opening of first-quarter earnings season, where investors look for corporate resilience amid rising inflationary pressures and supply chain instability.
- Big Banks Take Center Stage: Goldman Sachs (GS +0.62%) leads the charge this morning, with Wall Street bracing for commentary on how Middle East volatility is impacting deal-making and trading revenue ahead of reports from JPMorgan Chase (JPM +0.88%) and Citigroup (C 1.41%) later this week.
- Economic Fragility: The breakdown of the two-week ceasefire forces the Fed to contend with a renewed "war premium" on energy, complicating the outlook for Bank of America (BAC 0.56%) and Wells Fargo (WFC +1.56%) as they navigate shifting rate expectations and credit cycle risks.
