Trouble is, this assertion is based on one of the dumbest arguments I've ever seen.
Here it is: "In the last six months, housing stocks are up 24%, well ahead of the overall market. If housing were destined to fall apart in 2007, these stocks wouldn't be so strong now."
In other words, investor enthusiasm has to be correct. If people are bidding up Toll Brothers
Of course, by this logic, all stocks would always be properly priced, even junkheap bankruptcy bait like Northwest Airlines. Enron -- hey, Enron must have been a fluke! Along with that whole year 2000 tech bubble. And the tulip trade too ...
Don't get me wrong. I think housing, and possibly our equity-bubble economy, is cruising for more bruising. The unexpected 19% revenue drop, 33% contract flop, and increased writedowns that Toll Brothers announced last week certainly don't indicate that the pain is over.
I don't try to pretend I know for sure. One thing that makes me more convinced I'm correct, however, is money managers grasping at straws and trying to fool you into thinking the market's always right. Hundreds of years of history have proven otherwise.
Comments? Bring them here.