It's no secret that investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure continues to ramp up as we head into 2026, and one of the biggest winners has been the chipmakers. Of course, Nvidia (NVDA +0.47%) wins the "most likely to be in the headlines" prize, but Advanced Micro Devices (AMD +6.36%) is an extremely interesting and promising business all by itself.
NASDAQ: AMD
Key Data Points
No investors have a crystal ball that can predict with complete accuracy where a stock will go. However, we can utilize the available information, as well as future industry projections, to forecast the stock's potential direction over a specified period.
AMD stock price forecast
The future looks bright for AMD, both in the near term and the longer term. In this section, we'll look at some of the main catalysts that could drive the stock’s performance this year and for the rest of the decade, as well as a prediction of where AMD's stock could be heading.
AMD 2026 forecast
In its most recent quarterly report (third quarter of 2025), AMD reported 36% year-over-year revenue growth to $9.2 billion, an all-time high for the company. Operating income and earnings per share both grew by 30% or more, as well. Given the massive AI investments already announced, plus some specific catalysts for 2026, I'd expect similar performance in 2026.
For example, AMD's deal to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD graphics processing units (GPUs) for ChatGPT parent company OpenAI is expected to begin deployment in the second half of 2026. The same applies to the partnership between AMD and Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) for AMD's GPUs to power an AI "supercluster."
AMD 2030 forecast
Looking ahead to 2030, it's important to consider the long-term trends that impact AMD's business. Just to name a few:
- The global data center GPU market is conservatively expected to roughly double by 2030, per a report by MarketsandMarkets. AMD's CEO Lisa Su is far more bullish, expecting it to reach $1 trillion in size by 2030, with AMD's annual data center revenue exceeding $100 billion at that point. For context, AMD's annualized data center revenue is about $17 billion today.
- The global gaming chip market is expected to grow at a 16% annualized rate through at least 2030, and even the "mature" central processing unit (CPU) market is expected to grow at a double-digit rate.
- The automotive chip market size is expected to grow at an 11% annual rate through 2030, according to Grand View Research. This is part of AMD's embedded chip business.
If Lisa Su’s data center prediction proves to be accurate, it would clearly be huge for AMD and its stock. But even if we split the difference between Su's expectation and what the research reports say, that would be about 300% growth in data center revenue. If gaming and embedded chips also grow as expected, AMD's total revenue could exceed $100 billion by 2030.
If this were to happen (and that's a big if), my prediction is that AMD's stock price would rise at a 22% annualized rate. That would translate to a stock price of about $601 per share in 2030, which would be a 171% overall gain.
Key drivers of AMD's stock performance
Of course, the No. 1 driver of AMD's stock performance (at least in recent years) is the surge in AI investment. The largest tech companies plan to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in AI infrastructure in 2026 alone and to ramp up spending even further afterward.
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AMD's data center chips have the No. 2 market share -- and it's a distant second place behind Nvidia -- but the momentum is heading in the right direction, and AMD has had some big customer wins recently, such as the OpenAI deal. Beyond data center chips, a few other factors could drive AMD's stock performance over the next few years:
- PC and gaming chips: Unlike Nvidia, which derives the bulk of its revenue from data center chips, AMD's data center segment and its client and gaming segment generate roughly the same amount of revenue. If AMD's Ryzen processors and Radeon gaming chips continue to sell at record levels, it could certainly be a driver of the stock.
- Embedded chips: AMD's embedded segment is its smallest, accounting for less than 10% of revenue; however, it presents a significant future opportunity. For example, AMD recently introduced its Ryzen AI Embedded Processor portfolio for applications such as automotive, healthcare, and others.
- Valuation: AMD isn't exactly the most expensive chipmaker, but with a valuation of about 40 times forward earnings, it isn't a cheap one. This implies that there is significant future growth already priced into the stock, so an unexpected slowdown in growth could certainly hurt the performance.
- Overall stock market/economic trends: It's worth mentioning that if the U.S. enters a recession, stock market correction, or bear market, it would likely be a key driving force behind AMD's stock price, regardless of how the business itself is performing.
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