For city dwellers and those living in congested areas outside urban centers, getting to the airport can be one of the biggest headaches related to air travel. Archer Aviation (ACHR +0.00%), however, is attempting to make this a little easier with its electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft -- air taxis that will, essentially, provide a more expeditious option for airport-bound travelers. And it's not only in the United States where Archer plans on rolling out this service. The company has plans to operate in Saudi Arabia, India, South Korea, and Ethiopia, as well as the U.S.
NYSE: ACHR
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In addition to the civilian market, Archer recognizes the value that its eVTOL aircraft can bring to the defense industry. Beginning in December 2024, Archer began collaborating with Anduril Industries to develop hybrid vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) aircraft for the military. Recently, the company took another step forward toward developing aircraft for defense applications when it began working with Karem Aircraft, which will provide Archer with access to its military-grade rotor and tiltrotor technologies.
With the confetti that helped ring in 2026 now swept from the party floors, many investors are wondering about Archer Aviation's stock prospects for 2026, and for those with a longer time horizon, about its potential by 2030.
Archer Aviation (ACHR) forecast
Soaring 58.8% in 2024, Archer Aviation stock suffered a loss of altitude in 2025. Failing to keep pace with the 16.4% rise of the S&P 500, Archer Aviation stock sank 22.9% last year.
Despite its disappointing performance in 2025, Archer Aviation stock could certainly regain the lift that helped buoy it higher in 2024.
2026 forecast
As of early 2026, Archer Aviation was in the pre-revenue phase of its development. Management, however, thinks that will change this year. Addressing the aircraft (dubbed Midnight) that are part of the launch edition program, Archer Aviation CEO Adam Goldstein said on the third-quarter 2025 conference call that the company expects to recognize payments as revenue for the program as it takes place.
While the company hasn't provided specific revenue guidance for 2026, it has indicated a $5 million price tag per aircraft. And the company hasn't forecast how many aircraft it expects to sell in 2026, but for the sake of this exercise, let's say it will sell 10 aircraft. In this case, Archer would post revenue of about $50 million for 2026.
There's no precedent for Archer Aviation stock with respect to a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio; however, using the P/S ratio for one of Archer's peers, Joby Aviation (JOBY +0.98%), can be useful. Currently, Joby trades at about 534 times trailing sales. If Archer Aviation reports fiscal 2026 revenue of $50 million, shares outstanding remain at the current level of 732.59 million, and it's valued at the same 534 P/S multiple, Archer stock would trade at approximately $36.50 per share.
Wall Street has a more bearish opinion of Archer stock. The consensus 12-month price target among analysts in early 2026 was $12.14.
2030 forecast
In late 2024, Archer Aviation announced that it had completed construction of its production facility located in Georgia. Partnering with Stellantis (STLA -4.19%) on the manufacturing of the Midnight aircraft, the company believes the Georgia facility will ultimately support annual production of 650 aircraft -- though management has a long-term annual production goal of 2,000 aircraft after expanding the facility.
If Archer Aviation produces 650 Midnight aircraft by 2030 and the price tag per plane remains at $5 million, the company would book sales of about $3.25 billion. lf Archer Aviation generates $3.25 billion in sales by 2030, maintains its current share count of 732.59 million, and trades at a notably lower price-to-sales ratio of 15, the stock would be valued at approximately $67 per share.
Key drivers of Archer Aviation's stock performance
Over the past three years, from early 2023 through early 2026, investors have rewarded Archer Aviation stock for a variety of reasons, sending the stock 231.8% higher. The company's announcements of major partnerships has been a catalyst for Archer's rising share price. When Archer revealed its partnership with Anduril to develop hybrid vertical takeoff and landing aircraft for defense applications in December 2024, for example, shares rose more than 17% higher on the day of the announcement.
Archer Aviation's announcements of progress toward commencing commercial operations also has contributed to a boost in share prices. This has come in a variety of shapes and sizes. Archer shares soared in December 2024, when the company announced the completion of its manufacturing facility in Georgia.
Unsurprisingly, Archer Aviation's success in securing large purchase orders has also significantly contributed to the stock's rise. Shares jumped more than 10% when Soracle (a Japan Airlines (JAPSY +0.05%) and Sumitomo (SSUM.Y +0.94%) joint venture) agreed to purchase as many as 100 Midnight aircraft, valued at as much as $500 million.
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One of the leading eVTOL stocks available to investors, Archer Aviation shines brightly on the radars of many growth investors. Although the stock underperformed the market in 2025, there's plenty of reason to suspect that shares can straighten up and fly right in the days ahead -- especially if Archer continues to make progress toward FAA certification for its Midnight aircraft.
Investors eager to gain exposure to Archer Aviation but who have lower risk tolerances may prefer investing in an exchange-traded fund (ETF) such as the Ark Space & Defense Innovation ETF (ARKX +1.68%). Because it's not certain that the company will succeed in its attempts to bring eVTOL flight to the masses, however, it's important to recognize that an Archer Aviation investment still remains relatively speculative at the moment.
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