Predicting Amazon’s (AMZN -1.78%) stock price is an almost impossible task. Few would have forecast that shares of the tech titan would have risen by only about 4% in 2025 (as of early December) and underperformed the S&P 500, which has rallied 16% year to date. Amazon had also surprisingly underperformed the market over the last five years (7.6% annualized return versus 13.1% for the S&P 500).
The tech titan’s past performance doesn’t necessarily mean it will continue to fall short of the market in the future. Here’s the current forecast on how an investment in shares of Amazon could perform in 2026 and beyond.
NASDAQ: AMZN
Key Data Points
Amazon (AMZN) forecast
Amazon is investing massively to capitalize on the artificial intelligence (AI) megatrend. In November 2025, the company unveiled plans to invest as much as $50 billion in AI infrastructure to support U.S. government agencies alone, with the expectation that it will break ground on the first new data center in 2026. The company believes its capital investments will drive strong returns for investors in the coming years.
Here’s a look at Amazon’s stock forecast for 2026 and 2030.
2026 forecast
Amazon expects to invest a staggering $125 billion in capex in 2025, up from its previous forecast of $118 billion. The company anticipates that number to grow in 2026 as it seeks to capitalize on the massive opportunity to invest in AI.
This increased investment could help reaccelerate growth, especially for Amazon Web Services (AWS). Wall Street analysts estimate that the company could grow the revenue from this business alone by more than 30% over the next year. That’s up from 20% in the third quarter of 2025.
This growth reacceleration supports Wall Street's view that Amazon's shares could rise to $295 by the end of 2026. That’s a more than 30% gain from where they traded in late 2025 ($225 a share). While I’m not quite as optimistic, I do think shares could rise more than 10% in 2026 to top $250 as its growth rate reaccelerates.
2030 forecast
Amazon’s heavy capital investment cycle could continue for many years. According to McKinsey, companies will invest $5.2 trillion in AI data centers by 2030. They’ll spend another $1.5 trillion on data centers to support traditional AI workloads. As a leader in cloud computing, Amazon will likely need to spend heavily to keep up with the competition in the coming years.
This investment spending should drive robust revenue growth for Amazon. According to an estimate by Oppenheimer, every incremental gigawatt of capacity Amazon adds to its platform generates $3 billion in annual revenue. It’s currently on pace to double its capacity through 2027.
AWS is only one of the company’s growth drivers. Amazon is also investing heavily to expand its e-commerce platform and advertising capabilities. It could conceivably grow its revenue at a double-digit annual rate over the next five years, and potentially produce even higher earnings growth. That could drive total returns well above 10% annually through 2030. I believe the share price could surpass $400 by 2030.
Amazon’s highlights and risks
Amazon believes its heavy capital investments will pay big dividends for shareholders in the coming years. The company expects to deliver strong returns on this capital as it builds out a leading AI platform. That positions it to grow its market share by delivering accelerating revenue growth from AWS. The company’s investments could make it a dominant player in the AI age.
However, Amazon isn’t the only tech titan investing heavily in AI. Microsoft (MSFT -1.04%) plans to invest $140 billion in capex in 2025, up 58% from its initial forecast and triple 2024’s level. Meanwhile, Alphabet (GOOG -1.01%)(GOOGL -1.03%) boosted its 2025 capital spending range to between $91 billion and $93 billion, up from its prior forecast of $75 billion to $85 billion. Meta Platforms (META -1.30%) is also investing heavily to build out AI tools.
A bright forecast for Amazon
Amazon is going all in on AI, investing heavily to build out additional data center capacity to support this game-changing technology. While there are risks to its heavy investment spending, the reward potential is hard to ignore. Amazon could grow its revenue and earnings briskly in the coming years, which could support a much higher stock price. That drives my prediction that Amazon’s stock will be worth more than $250 a share in 2025 and rise above $400 by 2030.
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