Nvidia (NVDA +3.80%) has been the leader of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom since the launch of ChatGPT three years ago, but is the Nvidia stock forecast for the next few years as good as the stock's performance so far in the AI era?
In early December 2025, the stock was up almost 1,000% over three years, after an explosion in revenue and profits. Nvidia is dominating the market for data center graphics processing units (GPUs), the chips powering AI applications like ChatGPT, with an estimated 92% market share, and demand continues to soar.
After coming so far in recent years, can Nvidia stock continue to climb? Let's take a look at where the stock might be by 2026 and 2030, as well as the key drivers to watch for the AI chip leader.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
Nvidia (NVDA) forecast
Nvidia's growth has slowed from the triple-digit surge it experienced shortly after the launch of ChatGPT, but it continues to put up impressive numbers. In fact, the company just surprised investors by reporting, for the first time in seven quarters, accelerating revenue growth in the third quarter of 2025, as revenue growth improved to 62.5% from 56% in the second quarter.
Additionally, the company expected revenue to accelerate further into the fourth quarter, a sign that demand and pricing trends are getting stronger. As if that weren't enough evidence, CEO Jensen Huang tamped down concerns about an AI bubble, saying, "From our vantage point, we see something very different."
Huang argued that the massive investment in non-AI software would shift to AI over the coming years, shifting from central processing units (CPUs) to GPUs and boding well for the company in the future.
2026 forecast
At this point, we have a number of clues into Nvidia's performance in 2026. With revenue growth accelerating in the third quarter and expected to reach roughly 65% in the fourth quarter, analyst estimates for its results next year have come up substantially.
Other signs indicate a strong 2026, as well. Data center capital expenditures continue to rise among other hyperscalers and start-ups, and AI is starting to drive real business at the software level, not only for start-ups like OpenAI and Anthropic but also for established cloud software companies that are leveraging AI models in their own businesses.
Nvidia trades at a premium to the S&P 500, but that should be expected, given its strong growth and industry leadership. The stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 46. At that valuation, Nvidia appears to be a good bet to outperform again in 2026, especially following its recent pullback. A gain of 20% or more seems like a reasonable expectation for Nvidia in 2026.
Wall Street analysts currently expect earnings per share of $7.46 for fiscal 2027, which ends in January 2027, and have a price target of $258, implying an increase of 41% over the next year.
2030 forecast
Looking out five years from now, there's a lot more uncertainty for Nvidia and AI. There is some reason to be concerned about a bubble. There's the precedent of the dot-com bubble, of course, but that's far from the only example. New technologies often go through some type of overexuberance cycle, which leads to a pullback and eventually steady growth.
However, valuations for Nvidia and its "Magnificent Seven" peers are still generally reasonable and don't indicate a bubble. For AI stocks like Nvidia, there would likely need to be a meaningful pullback in capex spending because those investments in AI infrastructure weren't paying off. However, there's no sign of that so far, and demand for AI software is starting to ramp up.
Nvidia also isn't slowing down. The company is expected to release its Rubin AI platform in the second half of 2026. It has historically released a new GPU version every two years, so future iterations should be expected, as well.
A lot could change in AI in the next five years, but the tailwinds are substantial. It seems fair to expect Nvidia's market cap to reach $10 billion by 2030, meaning the stock would more than double.
Key drivers of Nvidia's stock performance
Above all, demand for AI compute power has been the main driver of the company's superior performance and will continue to be. It's also crucial for the company to continue to maintain its leading market share. Thus far, it's fended off challenges from rivals like AMD (AMD +6.17%) and Intel (INTC +1.52%).
However, Alphabet (GOOG +1.55%)(GOOGL +1.47%) made waves with its Tensor Processing Unit (TPU), its own AI chip, when Meta Platforms (META -0.78%) reportedly put in an order for it. Alphabet's TPUs, which are known for their prowess in AI inference, are already putting pricing pressure on Nvidia's chips, according to reports.
Beyond competition, Nvidia’s long-term advantage also depends on the ecosystem it has built around its chips, including networking hardware, software platforms, and strategic acquisitions. Understanding what Nvidia owns helps explain why the company has been able to maintain such a dominant position in AI infrastructure despite growing competition.
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At this point, competition remains a fair question for Nvidia, and Alphabet seems likely to challenge in the AI inference market. However, Nvidia's supremacy in AI training seems unthreatened.
Overall, keep your eye on the general growth in the AI sector, and Nvidia's competitive position within it. If AI keeps growing as expected and its market share remains dominant, the stock looks like a good bet to keep winning.
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