In his classic text on the advantages and disadvantages of various investing strategies, Investment Fables, Aswath Damodaran of the Stern School of Business at NYU states his doubts. After crunching the numbers, he concludes that while it's true in general that a stock that has been going up keeps going up, "timing can make the difference between success and failure" when you trade on momentum.
When a stock rockets on a better-than-expected earnings release, for example, seconds can count. Good news can spark a nearly instantaneous rise in price, and the profits go only to the quickest clickers. Gun-shy traders face a different problem. Stocks that have risen for six months straight tend to continue rising for a while, but if you wait six months to identify the "trend," you have by definition forgone all the profits to be made while the trend was forming.
In short, momentum trading is risky. Citing statistical data, Professor Damodaran further explains that, "Momentum stocks have an average beta almost twice that of the rest of the market ... and are much more volatile."
The problem is that this process works both ways. Traders who buy a stock because it's going up may quickly turn around and abandon the stock when it stalls. At that point, a tidal wave of selling starts. Sellers, desperate to get out of the stock, will offer to sell it for progressively lower prices, forcing the price downward.
The bottom line on momentum trading is that it is a higher-risk way to put money to work in the stock market. And it's certainly a form of trading, not investing. Momentum trading can be a good way to make money when things work out, but it can quickly result in big losses if things go the other way. Invest accordingly.