The cyclicality of bank stocks
Banks can be a great place to invest, especially in strong economies.
When consumers are confidently spending, and unemployment is low, profits tend to grow and loan defaults are typically kept in check. On the other hand, banks tend to perform quite poorly during recessions and other uncertain times. In investing terms, this means banks are a cyclical business.
There are several reasons why banks tend to perform poorly during recessions and other challenging economic climates. For one thing, they can face a wave of loan defaults if unemployment rises. Additionally, consumers tend to slow their spending during recessions, resulting in lower demand for loans.
On the other hand, certain aspects of investment banking -- such as trading -- tend to perform better in turbulent times. Banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs (GS -0.71%) that have large investment banking operations could be helped by tough times, while banks that largely focus on retail banking, such as Wells Fargo (WFC -1.53%), could be at a temporary disadvantage.
It's also worth mentioning that the United States occasionally faces a banking crisis, and customer panic is a very real risk factor. Consider the 2023 failure of SVB Financial's Silicon Valley Bank. It began when the bank unexpectedly reported that it needed to sell assets at a loss. But the bank collapsed when customers panicked and withdrew tens of billions of dollars from the bank.
Warren Buffett loves banks
Outgoing Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A -0.07%)(BRK.B -0.38%) CEO Warren Buffett is known as one of the best stock investors of all time. During more than 60 years at the helm of the company, Buffett has delivered annualized returns more than double those of the S&P 500, and the investments he's chosen for Berkshire's massive stock portfolio over the years are a good reason for the excellent returns.
If you take a glance at Berkshire's stock portfolio, you'll notice one major trend: Buffett owns quite a few bank stocks. Berkshire owns stakes worth $1 billion or more in several bank stocks, including almost 8% of Bank of America, approximately 22% of American Express (AXP -0.57%), and 9.4% of Ally Financial (NYSE: ALLY).
The bottom line on bank stocks
Although it's not necessarily a smart idea to buy any particular stock just because a billionaire owns it (even Warren Buffett), there does appear to be some value in the banking industry if you're a patient, long-term investor who can tolerate some short-term volatility. So if you don't have much exposure in your portfolio, one or more of the rock-solid banks discussed here could be a good fit for you.