Solar and wind are the fastest-growing energy sources in the U.S., expanding 1,914% and 391%, respectively, between 2010 and 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA). Natural gas is the largest source of energy, accounting for 38% of total U.S. energy production, followed by crude oil at 26% and coal at 10%.
The shale revolution and clean energy build-out happened simultaneously during that period. The U.S. set records in oil and gas production while solar and wind expanded. Understanding which energy sources are growing, which are shrinking, and which are projected to dominate by 2050 is increasingly relevant context for individual investors.
U.S. energy production by source over time: Solar and wind led all growth since 2010
Two distinct energy production stories have come out of the last 15 years: Fossil fuels expanded significantly in absolute terms while renewables grew faster from a smaller base.
- Solar production grew more than any other source in percentage terms, rising 1,941% between 2010 and 2025. Output reached 1.388 quadrillion Btu in 2025, up from 0.068 quadrillion Btu in 2010, according to the EIA. But solar still represents only 1.3% of total U.S. primary energy production.
- Wind production grew 391% over the same period, from 0.323 to 1.585 quadrillion Btu. Wind accounted for 1.5% of total U.S. primary energy production in 2025, says the EIA.
- Coal production fell 50% between 2010 and 2025, from 22.0 to 11.0 quadrillion Btu. Coal's share of total U.S. primary energy production dropped from roughly 30% in 2010 to 10.3% in 2025, according to EIA data.
Natural gas production grew 87% between 2010 and 2025, from 21.8 to 40.7 quadrillion Btu, driven by hydraulic fracturing. Crude oil production grew 143%, from 11.6 to 28.2 quadrillion Btu, over the same period. Natural gas now accounts for 38% of total U.S. energy production, the largest share of any single source.
Solar and wind energy are projected to keep growing through 2050
The EIA's Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case projects that the U.S. energy production mix will look different by 2050: Solar and wind show the highest projected growth rates among all sources, followed by geothermal; coal production is projected to drop by nearly two-thirds from its 2024 level, crude oil production will decline as well; and natural gas, nuclear, hydro, and biomass production will remain nearly level.
- Solar production is projected to grow at 7.9% annually through 2050, rising from 1.050 to 7.509 quadrillion Btu. That would represent a 615% increase from the 2024 base used in the EIA’s projections.
- Wind production is projected to grow at 6.1% annually through 2050, rising from 1.528 to 7.114 quadrillion Btu. A significant part of that projection is based on offshore wind energy production accelerating.
- Coal production is projected to fall from 10.3 to 3.8 quadrillion Btu between 2024 and 2050, a 63% decline. Natural gas production is projected to hold roughly flat, rising modestly from 39.8 to 43.6 quadrillion Btu over the same period.
Geothermal is projected to grow at 4.9% annually through 2050, the third-highest rate among individual renewable sources. Crude oil production is projected to decline gradually, from 27.5 to 23.2 quadrillion Btu, as efficiency gains and electric vehicle adoption reduce demand.
Nuclear energy production is projected to decline slightly, from 8.1 to 7.7 quadrillion Btu by 2050, though announced plans by Microsoft (MSFT +0.60%), Alphabet (GOOGL +1.71%), and Amazon (AMZN +0.26%) to source nuclear power for data centers may shake up that forecast.
What energy trends are worth watching
The production data and projections point to several dynamics that individual investors tracking the energy sector may want to monitor.
First, the shale-driven oil and gas expansion has not reversed. U.S. crude oil production reached 28.2 quadrillion Btu in 2025 – more than double the 2010 level – and natural gas production reached 40.7 quadrillion Btu. The EIA projects natural gas production will remain near current levels through 2050.
Second, solar and wind growth rates are high, but absolute scale still lags fossil fuels. Solar and wind together accounted for 2.8% of U.S. energy production in 2025. The projected growth trajectory implies a much larger share by 2050, but closing that gap would require sustained capital and grid infrastructure investment at a significant scale.
The energy mix is shifting, but the pace and scale will depend on infrastructure investment, policy, and emerging demand from sectors like AI, which current projections may understate.
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