However, the domestic market has been a challenge for United. Total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) is an important metric in the airline industry that shows how much revenue is generated from all sources -- including ticket sales, other passenger revenue, and cargo -- for each available seat mile. United’s TRASM was down slightly in fiscal 2024 due to overcapacity on some domestic routes and growing pricing competition from low-cost carriers.
United's heavy exposure to business and premium travel, and its focus on international routes, coupled with its less-robust domestic business, could make it especially vulnerable to a recession.
In January 2025, United issued guidance forecasting adjusted earnings per share of $11.50 to $13.50 for fiscal 2025. However, it later noted in a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing that the economy is "impossible to predict this year with any degree of confidence," and issued a second projection, estimating that adjusted EPS would fall between $7 and $9 if there's a recession.